EURTRY - Trades at equilibrium level within the range

FX:EURTRY   Euro / Turkish Lira
35 0 2
EURTRY             is really interesting in more ways. First of all, TRY has one of the highest rate advantage, which means going short from time to time is really a nice positive carry. Looking at TRY denominated bonds, the yields for 1 year maturity for example range between 8,50 - 9,50 % p.a. (depending on the issuer).

However from time to time we have to face with an extremely volatile price action, as the extremely voltile price action. As we saw early this year, when things (e.g. political uncertanity) go wrong, TRY can really blow up, so through FX devaluation one can quickly loose the whole 1 year rate differential. Let's see how does it look like now?

Daily: Nothing "really special" we could say, since May it's been trading within 2,80 - 2,91 range. But we have to realise this range is almost 4 % wide! Technicals are mixed a bit. Price trading exactly at the equilibrium level, so ard             the flat Kumo. We have a still intact downtrend line just above the Price. Slow Stoch is overbought, may give a sell signal soon, but MACD and DMI are bullish . (Note: MACD is bit less useful when you look at a more volatile ccy pair.)
For now I see a 65 vs 55 % chance for a bearish move vs a bullish one above the cloud.

If I look at the ECB policy for the close future, TRY can be a really attractive ccy for investors who are looking for an alternative against EUR. At least the positive carry really favours them. Playing EURTRY             as a leveraged speculative position is not an easy game. But if one has some EUR savings to diversify, maybe at some point it worths to do conversion and buy a high yielding TRY denominated bond. Certanly a better risk-reward than the HUF             or PLN for example.

4 Hrs: It is in counter trend mode now, but the bullish momentum may decrease below 2,88.
Lower support to watch now is 2,8350.
EN English
EN English (UK)
EN English (IN)
DE Deutsch
FR Français
ES Español
IT Italiano
PL Polski
TR Türkçe
RU Русский
PT Português
ID Bahasa Indonesia
MS Bahasa Melayu
TH ภาษาไทย
VI Tiếng Việt
JA 日本語
KO 한국어
ZH 简体中文
ZH 繁體中文
AR العربية
Home Stock Screener Forex Signal Finder Cryptocurrency Signal Finder Economic Calendar How It Works Chart Features House Rules Moderators Website & Broker Solutions Widgets Stock Charting Library Feature Request Blog & News FAQ Help & Wiki Twitter
Profile Profile Settings Account and Billing My Support Tickets Contact Support Ideas Published Followers Following Private Messages Chat Sign Out