However from time to time we have to face with an extremely volatile price action, as the extremely voltile price action. As we saw early this year, when things (e.g. political uncertanity) go wrong, TRY can really blow up, so through FX devaluation one can quickly loose the whole 1 year rate differential. Let's see how does it look like now?
Daily: Nothing "really special" we could say, since May it's been trading within 2,80 - 2,91 range. But we have to realise this range is almost 4 % wide! Technicals are mixed a bit. Price trading exactly at the equilibrium level, so ard the flat Kumo. We have a still intact downtrend line just above the Price. Slow is overbought, may give a sell signal soon, but and DMI are . (Note: is bit less useful when you look at a more volatile ccy pair.)
For now I see a 65 vs 55 % chance for a move vs a one above the cloud.
If I look at the ECB policy for the close future, TRY can be a really attractive ccy for investors who are looking for an alternative against EUR. At least the positive carry really favours them. Playing EURTRY as a leveraged speculative position is not an easy game. But if one has some EUR savings to diversify, maybe at some point it worths to do conversion and buy a high yielding TRY denominated bond. Certanly a better risk-reward than the HUF or PLN for example.
4 Hrs: It is in counter trend mode now, but the momentum may decrease below 2,88.
Lower support to watch now is 2,8350.