Reasons: 1. Both H1 and H4 shows pullback demand 2. Trend is absolutely downward based on both fundamental and technical statements 3. Multiple resistance near 1.13550 area: 200 MA, trend line and horizontal resistance
Very descriptive, I'll make sure to follow your idea for the short, here's my outlook,
Erland
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It is trying to hit 1.138 - the top of the triangle you have drawn. It may even seek to spike up to 1.141 if it does not go back to 1.13 by tomorrow night.
Erland
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1.141 would be the same distance lower high on D1 as it was 1.147 to 1.144, so there are 3 short positions possible - 1.1355 as you have suggested, 1.138 which is 61.8% retrace and 1.141 which is a good D1 lower High point. You may consider adjusting your SL accordingly as your trade setup is good.
zuoertai
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@Erland, Thank you for your comment! I have closed this trade just to be safe. I will look for a new chance to re-open a position.
Erland
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@zuoertai, Agree with you, 1.1355 does not seem to hold long. May jump up.
Erland
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The price did come close to 1.138 and that one of the previously mentioned reversal points. Just entered and should go to 1.1315 I believe before another retrace.
Erland
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My last attempt will be at 1.1415 with SL 1.142, if that does not hold I am not selling anymore and siting on the sidelines for new opportunity.
zuoertai
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@Erland, I entered short position near 1.13800 and now the price is very close to my stop loss at 1.14050. Today is really bad for trading with almost no clear trends and a lot of false signals.
Erland
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As predicted earlier - 1.1415 is another area for the last short entry. 1.145 is a SL. if that does not hold 1.1547 comes into play as mentioned a couple of weeks ago where the first rejection may occur. However - I still keep my view of a revisit to 1.162-1.171 in the coming several weeks as that is the place where it should look for a drop to 1.10-1.11. It will be reinforced if 1.121 or worse -1.126 is deemed a short term bottom.
zuoertai
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@Erland, If your trade is correct (let's hope), where is your TP?