UPDATE #2:CLOSED TRADE: EURUSD:Sell@1.16209 TP (+530 pips)

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I have now closed this trade as prices had hit 1.12900 which was within 10 pips of my target TP2. Why I did this was because I am expecting that wave 5 will start sometime soon and there's no need to wait for the extra 10 pips profit. I prefer to be in a neutral position in order to evaluate price action without any bias towards an open trade that is opposite to what I am expecting to come. For now, I do not see any bullish price action to which to go LONG yet.

Again, for those of you have questions as to how I am calculating my pip profit totals, they are representative of the way I trade and my trading plan. Whenever I open a trade, I always open an even number of positions and treat each position as their own completely separate trade apart from the other positions though they are all the same trade. So when I close out any positions at TP1 and I say I am letting the remaining positions run to TP2, I am essentially only closing half or whatever percentage of my open positions. Say for example, on this trade. I opened 4 positions SHORT. When prices hit TP1, I closed 3 of those positions (yes, I know that is 75% and not 70% like i said but for ease of accounting, that is what I did) and let 1 open SHORT order to run to TP2.

So I made +238 pips on the first 3 positions and made another +292 pips on the remaining 1 open positions for a combined total of +530 pips. That is my trading plan on every trade I open. It is not for the purpose of inflating my pip totals because in the end...WHO CARES how much I made, right? Only me, my accountant, my wife and the darn IRS!

I hope that helps explain my accounting methods and also to help those that need some help with their own trading plan. That is what having a trading plan can do for you!

Please keep in mind that I am not giving any trading signals or trade calls here. Only providing my own trade thoughts for your benefit and insight as to my trading technique and style. Please don't ask if you should or should not take the trade. If you are not sure, then you do not have a trading plan for yourself in place. I suggest you make one before you continue to do any trading!

If you like my posts and find them helpful, please take a second to hit that LIKE button and follow me so I will know my posts are useful to you. Doing so will encourage me to post more! As always, all constructive comments are welcome. Agree or disagree.
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Do you have a view on GBP at the moment?
working on that now.....I have to admit that I missed that huge drop though. Wasn't expecting that...WOW! Caused me to have to re-think what's going on with Cable.
Willpower87 EverythingForex
caught me by surprise too! Cable tends to do this a lot lol
Willpower87 EverythingForex
good close, up 14 pips since then
Still no bullish price action yet. I'll be looking for prices to move up even higher first, then drop back down to re-test the recent low closing inside the goldilocks zone before making any determination of a bullish bias. But yeah, this pair is going UP!
+1 Reply
Willpower87 EverythingForex
yep needs to break the descending channel first to confirm next leg up
stay with your best EURUSD analysis.
best regards
thx for sharing your idea..this is my view: These days we have seen an overshooting market. The Pair seemed to beat it s strong resistance Zone but this Zone between 1,139-1,15 could not be conquered sustainably at the Moment.
The Zone turned again into a big resistance Zone.
Prices below that Level turn the Chart again bearish! A possible target at the downside could be the Grey "3" at 1,125
Only Prices above 1,15 will lighten the Chart and generate the TP @ 1,175

TP and MoB-Zone reached
TP and MoB-Zone reached

We have reached my exspected level -the target of the sh-pattern.
Now it s getting very interesting. This Level is a potential selling zone - a MoB - the R/R for a short looks phantastic.
Can the eurusd0.38% brake through that selling zone, a big buying-signal would be generated.A possible target of the Breakout could be the 62,8 fibo-retracement @ 1,1755 from the move 1,25-1,044.
I exspect a shortterm pullback to 1,1190 ( "3?")

Former analysis:
Little inverse SHS ?

Will the shs push the price to the upper edge of the triangle?
Green: preferred Szenario
Gey: Alternative Szenario
MaryJane MaryJane
sorry, this is the actual chart
Thanks for the post and the thoughts. I'm highly doubtful that there will be any meaningful bearish move in this pair. I'm VERY BULLISH and expect a very large long term bullish move lasting several weeks and maybe months to come in a wave (C). This wave (C) could have the potential to retrace 50% or more of the major down trend on the monthly cycle. Right now, we very well could be at the very beginnings of that wave (C) move. The reason for all the back and forth movements right now is because we are seeing a trend change. Major trend changes tend to have a bull/bear battle causing the back and forth before finally changing the trend. And the change in trend is bullish.
+1 Reply
MaryJane EverythingForex
WOW! Thanks for your Explanation and thoughts. A trendchance would be terrivble for the german market, at the Moment we see a massive negative correlation between eurusd and DAX. OK, for the german market i am bearish too in the midterm view. That corresponds to a increasing eurusd! If the Pair could bomb the resistance Zone between 1,139-1,15 away, my view also turns bullish for the Pair. We will see. This year is standing under the banner of the forex market.

Currencies are ruling the market!
Dax Crash! Crazy Fundamentals out there

The greenback appreciated round about 25% within one year.This caused several things at the market:
The revalued USD caused a commodity-bearmarket, bad Outlooks within the earning season and the simultaneous depreciation of the EURO0.26% caused a bullmarket in europe with bad Impacts for some emerging markets. The Oil Price crashed, Gold was weak.
During the german market rallied from 09/2014 -04/2015 we saw a conolidation in the EURO0.26% and a Rally in the US-DOLLAR.
Since Q2/15 we see a correction of the usd - dax consolidated. as Long this correction is going on - the german market will suffer from that

+1 Reply
Sorry to hear that since I take it you live in Germany. I don't trade the DAX so I don't have any technical analysis on it to go on to know what it is doing and what it might do. But from a fundamental view, things don't look good for the DAX. This year it seems there has been a "perfect storm" of bad news hitting the German economy. Earlier this year, the EUR and the DAX were highly correlated. But I think ever since the Greek crisis, that correlation changed. I had said that no matter what the outcome of the Greek crisis, the EUR would rise. Even if there was a Grexit. Shedding the burden of carrying Greece's debt burden would've eventually been good for the EUR. Solving the Greek crisis was also going to be seen as good for the EUR. So no matter what, I said the EUR would rise. Not so for the German economy. Germany is Greece's biggest lender. By now extending even more loans to Greece and with the prospect of "debt relief" in the form of forgiveness still looming, it wasn't going to good for the German economy regardless of outcome. If there was a Grexit, then the debt default would've hit Germany hard. Now, with the dollar starting to weaken, this is also bad news for the DAX as Germany is an export economy. Weaker dollar means that German goods will cost more overseas. Especially in Germany's biggest market: the U.S. Combine that with another big problem: Germany's other biggest trading partner: China's economy now on the skids. I don't see any good news for the DAX anytime soon. But with the USD dropping, the EUR must rise. They have a strong inverse correlation. Therefore, given all of the above, not a surprise to see inverse correlation between the EUR and DAX.
+1 Reply
MaryJane EverythingForex
Thank you very much for your thoughts! I could`t explain it better :-) My midterm view of the german market is really bearish. If you are interested in my technical view, please have a look at my last Analysis`.
Longterm View Monthly: Further 1000 points down?

Good trades - good luck! :-)
Longterm View: LongTerm Swing-Dynamic vs. MidTerm Bearish Flag
Longterm View:  LongTerm Swing-Dynamic vs. MidTerm Bearish Flag

When we have a look at the longterm Chart we see a clear and very wide downchannel. At the beginning of 2015 we have kissed the downtrend channels bottom @ 1,04. From that Level on we started a Rebound nearly till the Minimum correction fibo (38,2) . here is also based the EMA 200 as a resist.
Now the Pair is forming a bearish flag! (blue). This bearish flag will generate a TP at the downside @ below the parity @ 0,965 if it will be triggered.

The cyclical /-or longterm swingview will generate a longterm tp @ the downtrendchannels upper edge @ 1,33! ( Magenta "3"?). On it s way up to that cyclical target several resist zones are based:
-EMA 200: 1,135
-0,38 fibo: 1,18
-0,5 fibo: 1,22
-0,618 fibo: 1,26
-Resistance tone formed of former lows between 1,2-1,25
yeah, I have that bear flag on my radar as well. from 2 months ago. But it's not complete yet. Needs another leg up to complete it and this wave (C) move up will do that if not more. Eventually, it will fall but for the next few months, I only see UP.
MaryJane EverythingForex
:agree: TOP ANALYSIS!!! LIKE!!! It is very similar with my view. i see, you have some similar technical glasses on your nose than me :-) Thank you very much
Willpower87 EverythingForex
brilliant analysis and discussions, EURUSD finally hit your target of 1.128! Sorry if what I said messed up your plan :(
no worries, man. Still made good pips!

I believe now wave 4 is coming to end and a new Wave5 is coming soon.
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