I have now closed this trade as prices had hit 1.12900 which was within 10 pips of my target TP2. Why I did this was because I am expecting that wave 5 will start sometime soon and there's no need to wait for the extra 10 pips profit. I prefer to be in a neutral position in order to evaluate price action without any bias towards an open trade that is opposite to what I am expecting to come. For now, I do not see any bullish price action to which to go LONG yet.
Again, for those of you have questions as to how I am calculating my pip profit totals, they are representative of the way I trade and my trading plan. Whenever I open a trade, I always open an even number of positions and treat each position as their own completely separate trade apart from the other positions though they are all the same trade. So when I close out any positions at TP1 and I say I am letting the remaining positions run to TP2, I am essentially only closing half or whatever percentage of my open positions. Say for example, on this trade. I opened 4 positions SHORT. When prices hit TP1, I closed 3 of those positions (yes, I know that is 75% and not 70% like i said but for ease of accounting, that is what I did) and let 1 open SHORT order to run to TP2.
So I made +238 pips on the first 3 positions and made another +292 pips on the remaining 1 open positions for a combined total of +530 pips. That is my trading plan on every trade I open. It is not for the purpose of inflating my pip totals because in the end...WHO CARES how much I made, right? Only me, my accountant, my wife and the darn IRS!
I hope that helps explain my accounting methods and also to help those that need some help with their own trading plan. That is what having a trading plan can do for you!
*DISCLAIMER: Please keep in mind that I am not giving any trading signals or trade calls here. Only providing my own trade thoughts for your benefit and insight as to my trading technique and style. Please don't ask if you should or should not take the trade. If you are not sure, then you do not have a trading plan for yourself in place. I suggest you make one before you continue to do any trading!
If you like my posts and find them helpful, please take a second to hit that LIKE button and follow me so I will know my posts are useful to you. Doing so will encourage me to post more! As always, all constructive comments are welcome. Agree or disagree.
I believe now wave 4 is coming to end and a new Wave5 is coming soon.
The_Cannalyst
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Longterm View: LongTerm Swing-Dynamic vs. MidTerm Bearish Flag When we have a look at the longterm Chart we see a clear and very wide downchannel. At the beginning of 2015 we have kissed the downtrend channels bottom @ 1,04. From that Level on we started a Rebound nearly till the Minimum correction fibo (38,2) . here is also based the EMA 200 as a resist.
Now the Pair is forming a bearish flag! (blue). This bearish flag will generate a TP at the downside @ below the parity @ 0,965 if it will be triggered.
The cyclical /-or longterm swingview will generate a longterm tp @ the downtrendchannels upper edge @ 1,33! ( Magenta "3"?). On it s way up to that cyclical target several resist zones are based:
-EMA 200: 1,135
-0,38 fibo: 1,18
-0,5 fibo: 1,22
-0,618 fibo: 1,26
-Resistance tone formed of former lows between 1,2-1,25
EverythingForex
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yeah, I have that bear flag on my radar as well. from 2 months ago. But it's not complete yet. Needs another leg up to complete it and this wave (C) move up will do that if not more. Eventually, it will fall but for the next few months, I only see UP.
The_Cannalyst
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:agree: TOP ANALYSIS!!! LIKE!!! It is very similar with my view. i see, you have some similar technical glasses on your nose than me :-) Thank you very much
Willpower87
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brilliant analysis and discussions, EURUSD finally hit your target of 1.128! Sorry if what I said messed up your plan :(
EverythingForex
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no worries, man. Still made good pips!
The_Cannalyst
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The_Cannalyst
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sorry, this is the actual chart
EverythingForex
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Thanks for the post and the thoughts. I'm highly doubtful that there will be any meaningful bearish move in this pair. I'm VERY BULLISH and expect a very large long term bullish move lasting several weeks and maybe months to come in a wave (C). This wave (C) could have the potential to retrace 50% or more of the major down trend on the monthly cycle. Right now, we very well could be at the very beginnings of that wave (C) move. The reason for all the back and forth movements right now is because we are seeing a trend change. Major trend changes tend to have a bull/bear battle causing the back and forth before finally changing the trend. And the change in trend is bullish.
The_Cannalyst
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WOW! Thanks for your Explanation and thoughts. A trendchance would be terrivble for the german market, at the Moment we see a massive negative correlation between eurusd and DAX. OK, for the german market i am bearish too in the midterm view. That corresponds to a increasing eurusd! If the Pair could bomb the resistance Zone between 1,139-1,15 away, my view also turns bullish for the Pair. We will see. This year is standing under the banner of the forex market.
Currencies are ruling the market! The greenback appreciated round about 25% within one year.This caused several things at the market:
The revalued USD caused a commodity-bearmarket, bad Outlooks within the earning season and the simultaneous depreciation of the EURO0.26% caused a bullmarket in europe with bad Impacts for some emerging markets. The Oil Price crashed, Gold was weak.
During the german market rallied from 09/2014 -04/2015 we saw a conolidation in the EURO0.26% and a Rally in the US-DOLLAR.
Since Q2/15 we see a correction of the usd - dax consolidated. as Long this correction is going on - the german market will suffer from that
I believe now wave 4 is coming to end and a new Wave5 is coming soon.