Top end of daily risk range, setup forming, Macro environment (peak inflation is in for a little while and we may be in for some deflation where the USD will do well).
Looks like it might retrace here in the short term however USD is going to be a short for a while. Probably won't get much out of this trade imo. I just sold my long and will wait for a solid rr trade long on Euro.
bitofamacroman
⋅
@SwingTechTrader, You may want to have a look at the 10yr, Gold, and all the tech FANG stocks and commodities, all of which appear to be topping, not to mention the data (MACRO) is highly indicative of slowing growth and inflation. Coupled with all the topping action in commodities (which all had like an 18-month run where the real inflation was happening and no one was talking about it. Now that it is peaking (at least temporarily) I think we are in for some deflation. It may not come right away, tops and bottoms are a process sometimes. But the evidence and data suggest so I do what the data and market tell me as I interpret it.
SwingTechTrader
⋅
@bitofamacroman, I hear what you are saying. I would understand some of that info to be short USD, no? In which case I completely agree with you. In the short term next day or two I expect the Euro to retrace (long USD and if i were to guess 1400 - 1420 level) then back up again. But who really knows... Best to sit and wait for those sweet low risk entries.
bitofamacroman
⋅
@SwingTechTrader, No, not short USD, not now not for Q1 and probably Q2 22. Most times yes, but I am not going to be short USD now. In fact I would be raising cash now selling most commodities, buying consumer staples, and Utilities and REITS, Long USD at least against commodities, Long treasuries and short interest rate futures, and I am not talking for a few hours, but over a longer duration (ex. 1-3 weeks and see how its playing out but probably more like 1-3 months). That is just the MACRO environment we are in (ex. Slowing growth slowing inflation, ex. Deflation). The only question is how deep will it hit us. Either way, position for it because the numbers that are coming will almost certainly reflect this reality. And in an environment like that there are very specific sectors and instruments that do well, and others that do not and this is backtested over and over again. SO I am going with the numbers, not just CHART PATTERNS ONLY. Right now we are in a transition from rising inflation and rising growth, to slowing inflation and slowing growth. This is our reality, not what the media and people purport as their narratives. These are what the numbers show and what the predictive analytics show for the next three months. Therefore begin positioning for it. Ignore the little burps and farts and fluctuations based on narratives along the way and remain resolute in your thesis and if you are right you will do EXTREMELY well. Good Luck!
SwingTechTrader
⋅
@bitofamacroman, interesting... well at least one of us will be right and will make some money. I prefer trading purely price action. Price action doesn't lie. I just went short USD and long CAD... EURO looks long here too in the short term (next 24/ 48 hours). I just prefer trading CAD. Yes, Good Luck!
@bitofamacroman, Yes you made a good call... but I think I did too. ;) See my last post. My CAD trade I took for 50 pips and my Euro call failed on Monday for for what would have been a 10 pip loss or gain if I would have taken the trade as mentioned in my last post above. I think we are two different types of traders. I trade mostly 24 hour periods - which has worked well for me. However, good call on the Euro - a much better trade than my call. ;) Glad you are making $$ !!
bitofamacroman
⋅
@SwingTechTrader, I do not trade that short of term. I use those charts of course for finer detail and entry. But I trade more on calculated ranges and i get in the direction of the trend based on the macro cycle we are in and for the market in that macro cycle. (Ex. Deflation dollar up, commodities down, Tech no good, consumer staples good. So I will be in the direction of the markets trend within my calculated daily range and when there is a decent chart pattern that would indicate an entry looms. Right now I feel we are transitioning from accelerating growth and inflation (18 months of inflation even though its only now being talked about as it is peaking). Moving to slowing growth and declining inflation. That is deflation. Its already begun and Q2 given any rate hike could be very bad indeed.
SwingTechTrader
⋅
@bitofamacroman, that's a great piece of information there. Thanks. I look forward to seeing more.
out of this trade imo. I just sold my long and will wait for a solid rr trade long on Euro.