jakobe1986
Long

Jake's Analysis of EUR/USD

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
624 0 4
Overall, the chart is very choppy and difficult to find solid levels of support/resistance. However, I feel the strength of the EUR to USD will be stronger in the coming weeks/months. With the current state of US job growth, debt ceiling, budget, etc I feel the EUR will see continual positive growth against the USD. This idea is based on the current and future state of the economical conditions in the US and I feel swayed towards the idea of EUR strength in the coming weeks/months.

The US dead line to raise the debt ceiling is Feb 27th. Depending on what happens in three weeks will obviously effect the value of the USD. Most likely will see another debt limit increase.

Quote from US Today ( http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2014/02/07/treasury-debt-limit-extraordinary-measures/5278153/ ):

" In less that three weeks, the U.S. Treasury will have just $50 billion in cash on hand, Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew told Congress Friday.

That sounds like a lot of money, but the government can spend as much as $60 billion a day — especially in February, when tax refunds alone can total $15 billion.

That means the government will run out of borrowed money by Feb. 27 unless Congress increases the debt limit "

Quote from WSJ Point #5 ( http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2014/02/05/six-ways-debt-ceiling-brinkmanship-can-hurt-the-u-s/ ):

" 5. Even a partial default on U.S. debt would reverberate through the global economy and damage the dollar’s standing.

The continued stability of the dollar’s reserve-currency status reflects the widespread conviction that outright default, or even a significant delay in payment, will not be part of any resolution of the ongoing debt debate in the United States,” write Joseph E. Gagnon and Kent Troutman. “The strength of this conviction is evident in the lack of any increase in yields on U.S. Treasury securities with remaining maturities greater than a few weeks, even during pivotal moments of the debt ceiling debate.

That said, if foreign governments were to become seriously concerned that the U.S. Treasury might default on some or all of its obligations, there would surely be a rush to exchange dollar reserves for other currencies . This would cause a crash in the value of the dollar, which by itself would greatly shrink the dollar’s share of foreign exchange reserves in value terms. Whether the dollar’s share would decline by more than the decline in its exchange value depends on whether foreign governments would be more or less determined to sell dollar assets than other investors. Because every transaction must have a buyer and a seller, foreign governments could succeed in selling off dollar reserves only to the extent that other investors were willing to buy more dollar assets. "

Continue to look for good entries and opportunities. I feel that if this EUR/USD             chart continues in the current trend channel it is in for another week there will be great opportunities to buy and go long.

These ideas are based only on my educated OPINION. I don't know enough about forex trading to really have a solid game plan when it comes to this. I'm better with small cap stocks :) (PS. Marijuana stocks is an interested play right now)
As always, do your own research and due diligence when trading :)
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