EURUSD: Fake Breakout at Resistance Targets 1.1600 Support

Jan 9

Hello everyone, here is my breakdown of the current EURUSD setup.

Market Analysis

EURUSD previously traded within a well-defined upward channel, respecting both the rising support and resistance lines, which confirmed a short-term bullish structure. During this phase, price produced a series of higher highs and higher lows, showing steady buyer control. This bullish move eventually led to a breakout into a broader range, where price action shifted into consolidation, reflecting temporary balance between buyers and sellers.

Currently, EURUSD is trading below the key Resistance Zone and is moving toward the Support Zone near 1.1600, which aligns with prior demand and a structural reaction area. The sharp rejection from resistance suggests that the recent bullish move was corrective rather than impulsive, and momentum has now shifted in favor of sellers.

My Scenario & Strategy

My primary scenario: as long as EURUSD remains below the 1.1690 Resistance Zone, the bearish bias remains valid. I expect price to continue its downside move toward the 1.1600 Support Zone, which acts as the first key downside target. Acceptance below this support would open the door for further bearish continuation toward lower levels.

However, a strong bullish reclaim and acceptance back above the resistance zone would invalidate the short scenario and signal a potential return into the range. For now, sellers are in control after the fake breakout, and price action favors further downside as long as resistance holds.

That’s the setup I’m tracking. Thank you for your attention, and always manage your risk.

Jan 11

Trade active

Today we see that the euro has not even been able to make an attempt to resume the upward movement as we expected and is confidently falling down. So we will wait further.

Jan 12

Trade closed: target reached

We see that almost reaching our target, the recovery process has begun. It is not yet clear whether this is a correction or a reversal, but I believe that the analysis worked out 70%.