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Long

TRADE: EURUSD: BUY@1.08240 Time To Catch The Number (3) Train!

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
2504 20 37
Number (3) Train? Yes, I'm just having some fun here. Of course by that I mean the wave (3)! As you can see on the chart, I am labeling the just completed bottom as the end of a wave (2). If that is correct, then we are looking at a wave (3) up next and my members and I have just caught the very beginning of what could be a VERY nice trade! Let's get to the analysis....

WAVE COUNT
Since that spike up back on Dec             . 3rd of last year, this pair has just been consolidating. It appears to me that this whole sideways consolidation has been one big H&S pattern setting up. I have marked the corrective waves of this correction on the chart as a big WXY pattern that may have ended recently and then the waves (1) and (2) of the next trend up have been established. In wave counting, one of the main objectives is to identity possible impulse waves and trade those. Especially the wave 3's. That might have just happened.

PATTERNS
There are 2 POTENTIAL patterns of consequence here: a crab and a bat. Both of which this possible new uptrend may be tracing out their respective CD legs. As mentioned above, there seems to be a reverse H&S pattern that has setup already with both the left and right shoulders completed. Symmetry in patterns if often sought out. Especially in patterrns like the H&S pattern. When there is symmetry, the pattern is usually more powerful. In this case, you can see clear symmetry between the left and right shoulders.

WHAT TO EXPECT
At the very least, prices have been trading inside a solid channel consolidation zone. And it has hit the bottom of that zone already. So I would expect to see it trade back up to the top at least.

MY TRADE PLAN
I'm LONG this pair and expecting a nice runup to eventually complete those patterns. My stops are below the channel lows so that if I get stopped out, then it means it is probably breaking to the downside.

*DISCLAIMER:
Please keep in mind that I am not giving any trading signals or trade calls here. Only providing my own trade thoughts for your benefit and insight as to my trading technique and style. Please don't ask if you should or should not take the trade or ask for stop loss and take profit levels. Any SL or TP given on my trades are my own I have used for my trade and are not recommendations for you to use. If you are not sure, then you do not have a trading plan for yourself in place. I suggest you make one before you continue to do any trading!

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trading biases are dangerous. Sometimes traders stick to their what they said too much just be cause they don't want to be wrong. To their own detriment. When it's clear you are wrong in your assessment, just give it up. Let go of it. And start analysis over from scratch with clean chart. Sticking with this "drop" to 1.06 when prices already blew past your original projections is an example of holding onto vias too long. I hope for anyone's sake who were thinking the same and kept claiming "1.06. 1.06" did not sell and or are not holding onto their SELLS because they just can't let go of their own bias and are bleeding money thinking you must be right. Only the market is ever right. And clearly, teh market is saying UP. Clearly, this is a wave (3) impulse wave up and a clear breakout of the consolidation as I predicted. If you are still holding on to any sell just "hoping" it turns around, good luck. I say this with all due respect and not gloating because I don't like to see anyone losing money.
+1 Reply
i think triangle can either happen on 4th wave or on B wave and looks like we are in a B wave once complete C wave to follow to the down side target 1.0626
+1 Reply
Breakout of consolidation?
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Im not sure I get the daily H AND S pattern you describe as for it to be a confluence signal for the long it would have to be inverse H and S at a market bottom? ( or I just might not be seeing this correctly)...
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Yes, that is an inverse H&S and H&S patterns do not need to be only at market tops/bottoms.
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This big consolidation that has been going on for a month is very crucial. I believe that the levels to watch is 1.1000 and 1.0710. If it breaks one of these points then we will have a rally and a dip respectively.

Good Analysis, with very good points.But the Bat should be extended to a higher level (ex. 1.1400 or so)!

The expectation are high for this currency especially in the next 2-3 months!
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what bat?
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Last (1) and (2) labeling looks confusing to me. 1 looks like a correction and 2 looks like an impulse. Thanks for the analysis though.
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why would you think that? Curious.....
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