TRADE: EURUSD: BUY@1.08240 Time To Catch The Number (3) Train!

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
2504 20 37
Number (3) Train? Yes, I'm just having some fun here. Of course by that I mean the wave (3)! As you can see on the chart, I am labeling the just completed bottom as the end of a wave (2). If that is correct, then we are looking at a wave (3) up next and my members and I have just caught the very beginning of what could be a VERY nice trade! Let's get to the analysis....

Since that spike up back on Dec             . 3rd of last year, this pair has just been consolidating. It appears to me that this whole sideways consolidation has been one big H&S pattern setting up. I have marked the corrective waves of this correction on the chart as a big WXY pattern that may have ended recently and then the waves (1) and (2) of the next trend up have been established. In wave counting, one of the main objectives is to identity possible impulse waves and trade those. Especially the wave 3's. That might have just happened.

There are 2 POTENTIAL patterns of consequence here: a crab and a bat. Both of which this possible new uptrend may be tracing out their respective CD legs. As mentioned above, there seems to be a reverse H&S pattern that has setup already with both the left and right shoulders completed. Symmetry in patterns if often sought out. Especially in patterrns like the H&S pattern. When there is symmetry, the pattern is usually more powerful. In this case, you can see clear symmetry between the left and right shoulders.

At the very least, prices have been trading inside a solid channel consolidation zone. And it has hit the bottom of that zone already. So I would expect to see it trade back up to the top at least.

I'm LONG this pair and expecting a nice runup to eventually complete those patterns. My stops are below the channel lows so that if I get stopped out, then it means it is probably breaking to the downside.

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Think we are finishing ABCDE and on a selling point at 1.0870. Next target 1.0720. Thanks for your analysis.
+1 Reply
thanks for your input. it is appreciated and as always, you are welcome to your opinion! Good luck!
muneeshclt PHILOOS
i agree, sell at 1.09000. and target should be 1.0710 or below then go up
PHILOOS muneeshclt
Thks Thinks that 1.0900 - 1.0915 is ok. Waiting to invest there second half of my short position.
kamehjin PHILOOS
any chart to support your idea ? everyone has mixed opinion on euro as of now. labelling of wave counts also differ by elite people here.
from last 2 months.. euro is in dam good range.. 1.08 buyers area.. and 1.098 sellers area... it is good to play range..
eurusd is(8hr chart) making its 5th wave on the c(ending diagonal where wave 4 overlaps wave 1) wave downside to 1.0626(wave a from dec 3rd to dec 7 ---1.090 to 1.0796,,,wave b from dec 7 to dec 14th 1.0796====1.106 this also complete the wave 1 on daily chart) after now since dec 14th wave c unfolding in 5 wave wave 1 dec 14th---dec 17th ==1.106 to 1.0798)
wave 2 dec 17th to 27 1.0798 to 1.099
wave 3 dec 27th jan 6th 1.099 to 1.0706
wave 4 jan 6th 14th 1.0766 to 1.0985
now 5th and final wave unfolding as abc(a complete b is unfolding may reach 1.092 then fall towards 1.0626

Target 1.0626(this be wave 2 (it is also .786% fib of previous move and 1.272% extension of wave 4) as long as price stays below 1.099 we are good with this projection
+1 Reply
EURUSD is confusing right now simply because it is in a correction. That is the nature of corrections is that they are confusing so natural to have differing opinions. Nothing wrong with that. Wave counting is subjective and there is almost never one single way to count the waves. I see the bullish scenario. Others like the guys who have posted their opinion here see it as bearish. Only time can tell which is correct. As I said, even if my count is not correct, I expect prices to at least retrace back up to the top of the channel. At which point, I would've already made and taken good profit from this pair. You see, I also have a bearish wave count in mind though I am preferring the bullish count. But the point is that when BOTH my bearish and bullish wave counts AGREE that at the moment, prices should go up, then that makes a good trade. So I went LONG. And I and my members are in profit right now and don't care whether 1.09 - 1.10 is a sell or not. We are making money on the way up regardless instead of sitting around arguing whether the wave count is correct.
+2 Reply
kamehjin EverythingForex
hehe.. very well said. although i consider your wave count over others' i hope its not correct as i am personally in a sell. good luck to you and to me.
IvanLabrie PRO EverythingForex
Wave counts are only subjective if you're not using neowave.
That being said, I agree on more upside in the short term.
If we get a dip lower it'll be even nicer.
+1 Reply
Last (1) and (2) labeling looks confusing to me. 1 looks like a correction and 2 looks like an impulse. Thanks for the analysis though.
why would you think that? Curious.....
This big consolidation that has been going on for a month is very crucial. I believe that the levels to watch is 1.1000 and 1.0710. If it breaks one of these points then we will have a rally and a dip respectively.

Good Analysis, with very good points.But the Bat should be extended to a higher level (ex. 1.1400 or so)!

The expectation are high for this currency especially in the next 2-3 months!
what bat?
Im not sure I get the daily H AND S pattern you describe as for it to be a confluence signal for the long it would have to be inverse H and S at a market bottom? ( or I just might not be seeing this correctly)...
Yes, that is an inverse H&S and H&S patterns do not need to be only at market tops/bottoms.
Breakout of consolidation?
i think triangle can either happen on 4th wave or on B wave and looks like we are in a B wave once complete C wave to follow to the down side target 1.0626
+1 Reply
trading biases are dangerous. Sometimes traders stick to their what they said too much just be cause they don't want to be wrong. To their own detriment. When it's clear you are wrong in your assessment, just give it up. Let go of it. And start analysis over from scratch with clean chart. Sticking with this "drop" to 1.06 when prices already blew past your original projections is an example of holding onto vias too long. I hope for anyone's sake who were thinking the same and kept claiming "1.06. 1.06" did not sell and or are not holding onto their SELLS because they just can't let go of their own bias and are bleeding money thinking you must be right. Only the market is ever right. And clearly, teh market is saying UP. Clearly, this is a wave (3) impulse wave up and a clear breakout of the consolidation as I predicted. If you are still holding on to any sell just "hoping" it turns around, good luck. I say this with all due respect and not gloating because I don't like to see anyone losing money.
+1 Reply
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