EURUSD - what to expect ?

FX:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
1381 3
A couple of scenario's here ... This publication is not intended to provide you signals but to try and give you how I see the important zones for this pair now.

Interesting pair the EURUSD , not in the least because of the number of discussions going on regarding QE on the EUR side and the scream that it would go to parity, coupled with the long awaited and ever postponed rate hike on USD side. And then you see price going the opposite way.

Depending on the time frame you are looking at you see a trend reversal or not. As I trade the 240 minute time frame for me the trend has reversed quite some time ago and has been putting in higher highs and higher lows ever since. This trend has not been broken yet, despite the completion of a nice bat pattern .

The bat pattern itself is still valid, unless price would break into the upper red zone, so the decision point for me looking for a trend reversal will be on the border of the upper orange and red zones.

If price fails to break into that upper red zone I will be looking for a retracement into the green zone, which in my opinion will be limited by the resistance around 1.1290 and the beginning of the orange zone. Breaking into that can bring us all the way down to the border of the red zone ...

Facts :

- on the 240 min time frame we are in an uptrend and until we create a lower low and lower high my bias is bullish on this pair. I am not looking for shorting opportunities at this moment

- the pair currently seems to depend mostly on USD data which has been on the negative side, so a further move up is definitely possible, despite the QE program and the hype around parity. Also the rate hike keeps getting postponed (first it was May, now there are rumours about September and if you ask me, it will not happen this year unless data for the US improves a lot)

So, what is your opinion about EURUSD , are you looking long or short, and why ?

I went short last night at 1.1438. I was happy yo see a low of 1.1306 during Monday afternoon trading. We just made a new low 90 minutes ago at 1.1290. I will stay short and have 1.1020 as a target.
+1 Reply
Nico.Muselle CoolCreekCTA
Well that was a good move ! Congrats ... it seems like we definitely have a move down till 1.1290 or so. There we have a strong support level and we'll have to see how price will react to it. Personally I do not trade on Mondays so I missed the move down and will see now what will happen once 1.1280-90's is reached.
tcas Nico.Muselle
My first target is 1.11100 and second 1.10000. Hope for another moving down.
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