There has been a strong buying activity on the EUR/USD since the start of the year. Institutions were clearly adding to their long long positions and pushing the price to new highs. In my prediction, I identify places where most of the institutions placed their long positions. Those places are easily spotted with a yearly Market Profile which shows volumes of positions they entered. If there is a pullback to a place where lot of institutions have their long positions, these institutions will defend their positions and they will intervene aggressively. This mean that they will initiate another strong and aggressive activity to shift the price higher once again.
After the ECB meeting on Thursday there was also pretty strong selling activity. For that reason I published a more risky short trade with tighter SL. The logic behind this short trade is that there were some pretty massive volumes placed in the market right before the strong sell-off. This could be a sigh of strong sellers accumulating their selling positions and pushing the price lower. Again – if there is a pullback, those sellers will try and defend their short positions and they will start aggressive selling to try and push the price lower.