ICmarkets
Short

Our take on the EUR...

FX:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
306 0 4
Well, we did not expect price to react so beautifully to the AB=CD bullish pattern at 1.1171 yesterday! In fact, we were not expecting it to trade above 1.1200, yet, the EUR rallied a little over 100 pips reaching highs of 1.1279 on the day.

Consequent to the above, daily supply at 1.1329-1.1269 is once again seeing some action, as is the weekly supply drawn from 1.1532-1.1278. Looking to the 4hr chart, however, we do not see any noteworthy resistances yet in play until supply at 1.1329-1.1301. With that, our team believes that price could potentially continue to advance today until reaching the above said supply zone .

Therefore, assuming that our analysis is correct and the EUR does indeed continue to advance, would we deem this 4hr supply zone a stable platform in which to look for shorts? This is certainly a viable base to sell from judging by the stern reaction seen previously on the 02/10/15 at 1.1381. However, traders need to be careful here. The previous touch could be the every reason why this area may fail, since a ton of offers/supply was likely consumed, thus potentially adding fuel to fake higher to supply sitting just above at 1.1366-1.1349.

As a matter of a fact, barring any news spikes, we have so much more confidence that the 1.1366-1.1349 area above will be the more higher-probability zone to trade from. We have placed a pending sell order at 1.13465 with a stop set above at 1.13717.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: Flat (Stop loss: N/A).
• Sells: 1.13465 (Stop loss: 1.13717).
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