botje11
Long

Bullish flag EURUSD predicting economic contraction US

FX:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
US dollar             seems to be weakening again (strong signal was the failed bearish H&S on the daily chart a month ago!)
Oil             prices have broken out on the upside (long term) (2 months ago i already said i was extremely bullish on oil             for the long term)
Rising intrest rate should attract the Dollar, instead it's going the other way the last year
Economy in Europe is showing real (actual) strength only the last year (or 2), but the first small signs of overheating are already showing (i am not talking about the numbers that are being published, but what's really happening nowadays).
Let's be honoust, the last 10 years, only the rich have become richer. It just keeps getting worse every year. While recessions can be nightmares for the normal people, for the rich it's only a new oppertunity to buy even more with great discount, just like we are waiting for the summer and winter sale :).

My guess is, the US economy will slow down in the next few years, ofcourse dragging the rest of the world with them (again). I think that this chart is already telling us that! Do you know what will get the blame for the recession this time?? The Crypto currency market, mark my words!!

I consider every drop towards the 1.14/1.16 a buy for the long term. The red area is still a very strong resistance, but i expect it to break through in 2018. Long term i expect at least 1.35. Short term i don't think it will drop below 1.16 anymore, and the extreme bullish version, it stays above 1.17 from now on.
Comment:
Comment:

Going as planned, the resistance around 1.185 has been taken out and so far been succesfully tested as a support level now. The bigger test is taking out the previous high at 1.1950
Comment: Target of the bullish flag has been reached perfectly!. Now it will probably go sideways for a while. The resistance at 1.1950 was no problem at all. Whatever it does, it should stay above the 1.185 to keep up bullish momentum. Next resistance is the previous top at 1.210.


Comment: It's really accelerating looking real strong and realy bullish! The dollar is really weakening now, also against other currencies (see my NZDUSD chart). After a failed attempt to take out the 1.210 it got perfect support from the breakout level of the big bullish flag. It took out the 1.210 very easy the second attempt!

So far this trade is going perfectly, it looks extremely strong, i expect to see 1.25 very soon, maybe even this week!. Oil is also going up very fast now, only making sideways correction, confirming that the only way is up. i just hope it wont go up to fast, because the sooner both will look up the highs, the sooner the economic decline will happen. The stock markets can still go higher, but these are also getting closer towards a bear market.

Comment:
Another breakout of a bullish flag, like i mentioned the previous update, it will reach the 1,25 very soon.
Comment: And the target was reached at 1,25, as i predicted without a real correction and very fast. I see many shorting EURUSD or Oil or Gold, but these people forget maybe forget that commodities and currency work differen than the stock market. Sometimes fundamentals take over the TA, have the upper hand! That is what's happening now.
Now it is possible that it makes a correction, big chance it wont even drop below the 1,2250 anymore, but 1,20 should be the real max. But my guess is, it will continue to go up and only make sideways corrections!
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botje11 ZurabGiguashvili
@ZurabGiguashvili,
Vielen dank, comments are welcome
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