Analysis and Forecast EUR / USD - Weekly overview (06.04-10.04)

FX:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
The last week has been good for the euro , which strengthened the dollar. At the beginning of the week there was no indication that the dollar will lose, but Wednesday's disappointing US data on ADP-farm employment change, led to gains in the EUR / USD pair. Therefore, the market whereas data from the US on Friday (change of employment in non-agricultural sector, and data on the unemployment rate), began to withdraw from the dollar. Increases were also compounded by low liquidity in the market on Friday.

Data that met with the US force to examine a possible rate hike again. Certainly pessimists who assume delaying the onset of rate hikes in 2015 or later, they received strong support. It is worth noting that the Department of Labor presented data, which proved to be the worst since December 2013 years! Do we have to deal with the downturn in the labor market, since the unemployment rate remained at 5.5%? In any case, the Federal Reserve will have reason to consider a proposed increase in interest rates in June or September.

Despite this weak US data, keep in mind that all the time, the US economy is a lot better than the European, and perhaps this is temporary shortness of breath. Here, for the benefit of the US economy, we can include - increase in earnings , cheap oil , which reduces costs for companies. In the Eurozone at the moment, the ECB conducts QE program, which admittedly can be optimistic about the future, as shown by some indicators, however, we need to wait for the actual assessment. Common currency of Greece pregnant all the time that the negotiations with the EU is not going to give way, putting everything on one card. Here it is worth noting that Greece may be insolvent in mid-April!

Next week the market will pay attention to more economic data on the calendar:

Spain: the change in the unemployment rate
USA: summary by Markitt PMI and the PMI for services
later we will know the ISM index for services

We will know the PMI for services in Spain, Italy and Germany
Eurozone: summary by Markitt PMI and the PMI for services

Orders factories in Germany and retail sales in the euro zone
USA: Minutes of FOMC meeting

Germany: industrial production and trade balance
US: ascendant declared to the unemployed

USA: index of export prices and import price index
Forecast for Monday:

Tomorrow some markets is not running, which can lead to further strong movements. At the moment, the market is pretty much bought which should allow for a small correction in the direction of the first support 1.0953 and 1.09. Given that once again we find ourselves between 1.1032 1,09- be careful. We are close to recent highs, which pretty much was defended by supply. However, there is a possibility that the market after the correction will want to attack the last resistance again. In case of breaking the top of the euro will develop a greater correction!

In summary the preferred option is a small correction in the vicinity of 1.09, (here should be closely monitored course, if the support will be defended demand is likely to be attacking the last summit.

The alternative version 1.09 will be defeated and the next support level of 1.0870 should be and 1.0830


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