Tom Hall Market Review #6 - Thursday, 21 March 2019
Canadian Dollar / Japanese Yen Active Position - Tuesday, 12 March 2019
I outlined in Market Review #5 the 4-hour timeframe consolidated deeper than initially expected, this caused drawdown to exceed 0.40%.
The 4-hour horizontal structure at 83.60 held price action for three consecutive days. The acceleration finally kicked-in helping price to breach the 50EMA and 200EMA taking the active position back to breakeven.
A break and close below 82.60 would indicate a higher timeframe trend change, providing more positive confluence to our active position.
Euro / U.S. Dollar The descending channel outlined on the Daily timeframe failed to hold, as price breaches the previous structure high at 1.1390 on the 20, March 2019.
Currently, there's no trade opportunity given the minimal reward comparative to risk and substantial stop loss required. However, the breach of both Daily and Weekly structure has my attention as price develops throughout next week.
The 1.1600 horizontal structure resistance and 200EMA align, providing a clear trading level to target should an opportunity present itself.
New Zealand Dollar / Swiss Franc I urged inexperienced traders in Market Review #5 to trade the NZD.CHF with caution, due to the high potential of traps that would cause unnecessary drawdown.
A breach of the Daily ascending trendline on 20, March 2019 caused many traders to execute a short position prematurely, my concern was the Daily 50EMA support and the 4-hour bullish RSI divergence.
The positive confluence failed to outweigh the negatives, confirming my thesis and invalidating a trade opportunity.
USOIL The long-awaited, highly anticipated Weekly structure at $60.00 is now under pressure as we approach market close.
The Daily overbought status in conjunction with the 4-hour bearish RSI divergence indicates early signs of weakness, confirming my higher timeframe thesis.
Additional development on the Weekly timeframe is required to confirm a trading opportunity. Prematurely executing a short position could cause unnecessary drawdown.
Let's see if this model can resolve all those issues (EURUSD, etc)
UnknownUnicorn180388
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@Johanes, It's certainly possible, I will continue to monitor as price develops.
TradingShot
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Thanks Tom for the complete market overview. If I may I'd like to post my long term overview on EURUSD as I believe that late "Fed noise" 1D candle confused many traders. The long term outlook is quite clear and bearish.