On the 4-hour chart, the horizontal correction is forming as a fourth wave iv of v within the first wave (1) of the higher level, which is taking the shape of a triangle. Now the wave (d) of iv of the lower level has formed. If the assumption is correct, after the end of the wave (e) of iv, the pair will grow to the levels of 1.2560–1.2650. The level of 1.2215 is critical for this scenario.
Main scenario
Long positions will become relevant after the end of the wave (e) of iv above the level of 1.2215 with the targets at 1.2560–1.2650.
Alternative scenario
The breakdown and the consolidation of the price below the level of 1.2215 will let the pair go down to the levels of 1.2135–1.2040.
Scenario Timeframe Weekly Recommendation BUY Entry Point 1.2373 Take Profit 1.2560, 1.2650 Stop Loss 1.2310 Key Levels 1.2040, 1.2135, 1.2215, 1.2560, 1.2650 Alternative scenario Recommendation SELL STOP Entry Point 1.2210 Take Profit 1.2135, 1.2040 Stop Loss 1.2270 Key Levels 1.2040, 1.2135, 1.2215, 1.2560, 1.2650