Potential Bearish Cypher on EURUSD

FX:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
How about I just make a bearish cypher pattern appear right before your eyes? Just Kidding, the cypher pattern has been there all along. Ok so like I said in my weekly video, I'm not expecting much volatility this week especially after the kinda week we had last week and with this pair in particular. After the huge rally we had on this pair last week I still expect this pair to continue it's rebound but before that happens we might get a little consolidation where the market will probably trade in a downward channel as it seeks a support structure to rally from and we have hit our first support structure that's why we have seen a slight rally but the market has now reached the top of a descending channel (see weekly video) and we have a potential bearish cypher that will complete at that area so we'll keep an eye and see what happens, obviously I'll use my rsi again as a reason for entry so if i see my rsi flirting with overbought conditions as we approach the entry point then I get ready to short.

See my weekly video on the analysis i did on this pair.
Trade closed: stop reached
Please take this as a constructive view and not as criticism. I don't know any professional futures traders that use harmonic patterns as they get caught up trying to predict the future. Great analysts don't make great traders but the opposite. I have traded for 8 years and I was interested in these harmonic patterns but soon realized they are very subjective and not for me.
As you predicted the pair to fall but it obviously went the complete opposite way so not only did you lose money on that trade but you got caught up in the pattern and missed a good long trade.
If they work for you more often than not and you earn money then good luck, its just my opinion.
Its very hard to pick tops and bottoms in the market and thats what they seem to be.
Thank's for your opinion but losing just a single trade doesn't mean the pattern doesn't work. I have back-tested these patterns and from my results I know they will only work about 60% of the time and if you look at all the trades I've posted using harmonic patterns this is only the 4th loss I've had in the 15 trades I've taken so the question is do i expect to lose more trades in the future? Absolutely! But you can't judge anything based on a single losing trade. No strategy works 100% of the time and every strategy has losing streaks.....knowing those statistics and finding a way to overcome it is what separates those who make constant profitable returns from those who don't. Losing a trade doesn't affect me, infact, I'm not only looking forward to losing a trade I'm looking forward to losing a few in a row because overcoming a losing streak is the challenge that most traders fail at. Just to conclude, I have never seen an equity curve that goes straight up north in a straight have dips! and guess what causes those dips? a combination of losing streaks...surprise surprise. Lots of strategies do work, just back-test it, trust and have the discipline to follow it consistently.
+1 Reply
bena2 JoMarshall
Cool mate, maybe I worded my comment a but wrong, Im not doubting that they are good. Ive been smashed in the past trying to pick tops so I just don't try anymore. The harmonics seem to me like trying to pick the turning points of trends in the market which is hard and you need big stops.
I trade with the flow and trend and Ive just come out of a losing streak myself so I'm well aware of the effort it takes to be consistent.
We could speak to 20 different traders and all trade their own way with success in their own right. good luck , if it isn't broke then don't fix it.
Its ok but advanced pattern are different because you're not trying to pick tops and bottoms, usually when the market is in consolidation that's when you see them frequently and you don't need big stops if you know the right way to trade them. Every advanced pattern I trade must have a risk:ratio greater than 1:1 or I simply don't trade it and with that logic I only need to be right half the time to break even. I totally agree with you though, 20 traders with different strategy can be successful in their own way just like Mourinho is a defensive/tactical coach but very successful and Pep Guadiorla is a High pressing/pretty football manager but also very successful so there's no wrong or right way to trade as long as you stick your strategy....back-test it, improve it and have the discipline to follow it.
+1 Reply
bena2 JoMarshall
Nice one mate, I need to do my homework on them before I bash them haha.
Do you get software to find them or just use fibbs?
Lol its cool mate, Nah i use just fibbs and I only trade (Bat, Gartley & Cypher pattern) because with them your stops only need to go above or below X, depending on whether its a bullish or bearish pattern. But with Crab or Shark pattern, that's the one you have to pick tops and bottoms and your stops can be very higher....that's why I don't trade those buy yeah do your homework and you'll see my point.
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I had it too! Badluck!
JoMarshall morshedul.sazid
Yeah it's a shame but it win some you lose some.
+1 Reply
Its just a test of patience. waiting for the real yield in the end of the month or so on.
+1 Reply
JoMarshall morshedul.sazid
Yeah absolutely, as long as the rules were followed you just need the courage and the discipline to to repeat it and in the long run the real yield will show.
+1 Reply
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