I'm going to go contrarian here, since I think the consensus behind NFP payroll numbers coming up is that yes, they will be high; at this point, they can only disappoint. If you recall last month's estimate of 175k blown out by an actual reading of 227k, the dollar weakened in response. Why? (Hint: It's the same reason the dollar weakened under a hawkish Yellen.)
Well the numbers looked quite impressive, but the underlying figures that the FOMC tends to scrutinize, like hourly wage growth and job growth by sector, told a story of stagnation. Based on the ADP figures put out in the beginning of the week, even the most amateur investor placed their bets on a strong dollar -- unless NFP broke 300k, nobody was expecting much of a surprise, only an upset. If any piece of information can cast the slightest doubt about the upcoming March hike it will affect price action far greater than a piece of information in support of it. On this chart I have superimposed last month's NFP dollar selloff over current price action as a mock projection of future activity. In short, the strategy here is "buy the rumor, sell the news."
Trade closed: target reached
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A near perfect prediction. History repeats itself, I suppose.