The beginning of the week began with the strong appreciation of the dollar, but the euro during the week worked out losses and ended the week up by 1.1% against the dollar. Quite unexpectedly after Sunday's referendum, when Greeks voted to NO, the Greek Government led by Aleksi Tsipras, issued on Wednesday evening a new project of reform and savings. The market took this information with satisfaction that automatically led to the strengthening of the euro . It is also worth noting Wednesday's FOMC meeting notes from which were balanced. Fed assumes the possibility of interest rate hikes later this year, but must be met appropriate assumptions: an improvement in the labor market and solid and good readings from the US economy. Market is read as an offset increases over time, which further supported the European currency.
The economic calendar for next week:
In the coming week will dominate all the time, the situation around Greece and the mood around the new aid plan for Greece. Sentences are divided politicians Eurogroup and hard at the moment to assess whether a possible rescue plan will cure the problems of the Greek. If you are unsure dollar may gain.
Monday: lack of relevant data, it is planned Eurogroup meeting;
Tuesday: ZEW economic mood in Germany and US retail sales and import price index and US export
Wednesday: PPI from the US and the statement of the President of the Fed, Janet Yellen, also will be announced production rate for NY and beige book;
Thursday: get readings on the CPI in the Eurozone, then the ECB will decide on interest rates. It is noteworthy that the President of the ECB press conference. Mario Draghi will refer to the recent situation in Greece. On the other side of the ocean will be announced industrial indicator of Philadelphia;
Friday: The most important data will flow from the US: building permit, the base CPI and Michigan consumer
Forecast for Monday:
Last week there was to break up with the in the vicinity of 1.1040. Support for the growth was the improvement in sentiment around Greece. The currency pair reached a strong at 1,1210-1,1230 then came to realize profits. Assuming that soon we will see the final and positive resolution of the case Greek, there is a fairly high probability of further gains in the pair EUR / USD.
allows for correction around 1.1080 and then we should see an attack on the 1.1210 level. If it comes to overcome this level will open the way for further increases. In this case, the goal will be the last maxima at 1.1456. Variant growth appears to be a variant, which has a greater chance of success. After reaching there should be a decline.
In an alternative version comes to inheritance after piercing the 1.1080 level which could trigger a resumption of the recent low of 1,0916-54.
Keep in mind that at the moment on a pair EUR / USD is very high variability caused by mixed information on Greece and this should be taken into account in its strategy.