DanV
Long

EURUSD - COULD IT BE THE "COME BACK KID"? - UPDATED

FX_IDC:EURUSD   EURO / US DOLLAR
My last 2 published charts (4 & 2 months ago) of EURUSD             suggesting potential low could form have been woefully premature. Particularly as the wave 5 became an extended wave which no one could have anticipated following ECBs EQ             announcement.

However that 5 wave decline now appear close to completion including the 5th extended wave in that cycle. In addition other possible features suggest that at least a possible retracement could be expected if not complete reversal.

General sentiments and Greece's situation would appear to be still a focus for many as well as continuing ECB's EQ             making it near impossible to envisage significant change in direction. However, similarly it in near impossible to correctly identify exactly how much of these fact already reflected in the price and how much are still to play out in future price decline.

What if the pessimism is overdone, or that Greece inevitably defaults and Eurozone, leaves or USA postpone rate rise that has been major expectation on which it has gained over other currencies??

Therefore, I am making my analysis only based on technical and would fully understand if some think this is rather foolish.

Lot of the detail are on the charts but here is a Technical Summary:

1. Approaching lower parallel of the pitchfork with RSI on oversold zone on Monthly.
2. Wave (a) = (b) measured move reaching 100%.
3. On weekly, ADX is overextended where move often ends with RSI & -DMI starting to diverge and coil suggesting that this cycle could be close to completion.
4. Since the May 2014 high we appear to have 5 wave near completion with possible retest of recent low needed to complete the minor 5th wave of the extended wave 5.
5. There is overwhelming expectation of reaching parity which could disappoint and trap many bears overstaying their welcome.
6. Though if it hit parity that would not necessarily alter the larger perspective

The above could be better appreciated with comparison of my DXY             chart if you have not already seen that.

Conclusion: Possible retracement to 1.20 are would not be out of place even if compete reversal fails to materialise.

Disclaimer: All of my work above could be completely wrong, so please use or disregard at your discretion.

As, always please do your own analysis for your requirement. Select to follow me and the charts for notification of any updates. If you like the analysis show this by thumbs up and constructive comments or alternative ideas for all to learn from.

Thanks for taking the time to view my analysis.

DanV
danv-charting.com
DanV MOD
2 years ago
Monthly Chart
snapshot
+1 Reply
DanV MOD
2 years ago
EURUSD & DXY Correlated monthly chart
snapshot
+1 Reply
I agree, this is probably the last wave down in this pair, and up for DXY.
Reply
Piphunters
2 years ago
Hi Nice analyze, And I agree that a reversal at the demand zone 0.98-1 could be birth of a new major trend. But still the next demand zone at ~0.84. Isn't impossible either. You shouldn't bring in fundamentals, but Greece supports the TA so, The US 10year is also woth looking at even more than usuall theses days. :) Cheers
+1 Reply
DanV MOD Piphunters
2 years ago
Thank you for your comments and observation. I agree with your comments. Taking to to account the fundamental if possible is very advantageous I also agree.

But these developments are too complex for me and most traders really to make meaningful assessment. Equally if Greece leaves as I think they will (speculation on my part) then we could have knee jerk reaction with EUR sell off and then make strong recovery. USD might also be reluctant to put rates up. So all these are multi facet forces interacting in a manner that could not be fully appreciated or quantified in my view. There may be others who could.
+3 Reply
Good Chart , Thanks
Reply
DanV MOD ersoytoptas
2 years ago
Thankyou for your compliment. I appreciate it.
+1 Reply
mustard
2 years ago
Great analysis.

I have a perfect AB=CD pattern drawn on my monthly chart, starting from the 2008 high and ending at the current March low. The CD leg is, of course, not necessarily complete, but currently sits at the 1.272 extension of AB.

We have seen a small retracement from the previous low and I am looking for the next signal: a retest and rejection at the previous low or a break and retest above 1.10 would take me long.
+1 Reply
DanV MOD mustard
2 years ago
Thank you for your comments.

Yes agree with your assessment and looking out for potential sign of reversal. Excellent
Reply
Sokow PRO
2 years ago
Totally agree with you. Look at this:
Week3: EURUSD will rise
+1 Reply
DanV MOD Sokow
2 years ago
Thank you for sharing your chart, I appreciate it.

I am not entire sure about about your other count labels but this decline is in sync and similar conclusion. Excellent
+1 Reply
DanV MOD
2 years ago
Just a quick note - There is a webinar interview today hosted by Tradingview in conjunction with EXante . You can go and register here : https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/958650259989559553
+1 Reply
DanV MOD
2 years ago
Updated chart published
EURUSD - SHORTING RETRACEMENT IN NEW BULLISH CYCLE
Reply
Just-Trade
a year ago
Thank You.
Reply
DanV MOD Just-Trade
a year ago
You are welcome.
Reply
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