However that 5 wave decline now appear close to completion including the 5th extended wave in that cycle. In addition other possible features suggest that at least a possible retracement could be expected if not complete reversal.
General sentiments and Greece's situation would appear to be still a focus for many as well as continuing ECB's EQ making it near impossible to envisage significant change in direction. However, similarly it in near impossible to correctly identify exactly how much of these fact already reflected in the price and how much are still to play out in future price decline.
What if the pessimism is overdone, or that Greece inevitably defaults and Eurozone, leaves or USA postpone rate rise that has been major expectation on which it has gained over other currencies??
Therefore, I am making my analysis only based on technical and would fully understand if some think this is rather foolish.
Lot of the detail are on the charts but here is a Technical Summary:
1. Approaching lower parallel of the with on oversold zone on Monthly.
2. Wave (a) = (b) measured move reaching 100%.
3. On weekly, is overextended where move often ends with & starting to diverge and coil suggesting that this cycle could be close to completion.
4. Since the May 2014 high we appear to have 5 wave near completion with possible retest of recent low needed to complete the minor 5th wave of the extended wave 5.
5. There is overwhelming expectation of reaching parity which could disappoint and trap many bears overstaying their welcome.
6. Though if it hit parity that would not necessarily alter the larger perspective
The above could be better appreciated with comparison of my DXY chart if you have not already seen that.
Conclusion: Possible retracement to 1.20 are would not be out of place even if compete reversal fails to materialise.
Disclaimer: All of my work above could be completely wrong, so please use or disregard at your discretion.
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But these developments are too complex for me and most traders really to make meaningful assessment. Equally if Greece leaves as I think they will (speculation on my part) then we could have knee jerk reaction with EUR sell off and then make strong recovery. USD might also be reluctant to put rates up. So all these are multi facet forces interacting in a manner that could not be fully appreciated or quantified in my view. There may be others who could.
I have a perfect AB=CD pattern drawn on my monthly chart, starting from the 2008 high and ending at the current March low. The CD leg is, of course, not necessarily complete, but currently sits at the 1.272 extension of AB.
We have seen a small retracement from the previous low and I am looking for the next signal: a retest and rejection at the previous low or a break and retest above 1.10 would take me long.