Weekly Analyse With Trading Plans And Ideas For The Coming Week
We saw a bold move above the Pitchfork and the Weekly SMA200 during the past week
which in the end turned into a hammer with a close below the sma200 and the upper
PF band. Price never traded the Weekly pivot point but was close to a test, still it reflects
the strong bullish pressure that spilled over from the last three weeks.
Price almost hit the Monthly lower Kumo Cloud (missed it with some 40 pips).
The monthly Cloud is large and descending and will stand as a wall during the autumn.
It will be very interesting to see wether it will reject price or if price will enter the cloud.
It seems like the Euro strength may be cause by very early interest rate hike expecations
building up.
I believe we will see a test of the Monthly pivot point, perhaps already next week, on the back
of the Hammer that was formed right at the junction of the upper PF and the SMA200.
Now looking at the Pivots, on a Yearly basis we are still in clear bullish territory, trading above
the Yearly R1 with the next target by the Yearly R2. On a monthly timeframe price stands
between the Pivot Point and the R1. The normal tendency is for price to first test the Pivot Point,
thus that is the major trading plan for next week. The NFP report was solid but not excellent,
so the sharp drop after its release could also be explained by pure profit taking.
Will price turn by the Monthly pp or will we see a deeper correction to the Monthly S1?
In an uptrend price should not close below the S1, and in this case the Monthly S1. If we
see that it will be a warning that we might have a longer term top in place with a possible
move below the Yearly R1 towards the Weekly Kumo Cloud.
I think, trading on daily and lower timeframes, even bulls will be happy to cash in on the moves
and wait for an opportunity to get in again at a better price. Bears could play the Hammer either
by placing a stop above the pin or wait for a confirmation candle to see the pattern triggered.
A confirmation would be a weekly candle close below the low of the Hammer (The current weeks
candle).
which in the end turned into a hammer with a close below the sma200 and the upper
PF band. Price never traded the Weekly pivot point but was close to a test, still it reflects
the strong bullish pressure that spilled over from the last three weeks.
Price almost hit the Monthly lower Kumo Cloud (missed it with some 40 pips).
The monthly Cloud is large and descending and will stand as a wall during the autumn.
It will be very interesting to see wether it will reject price or if price will enter the cloud.
It seems like the Euro strength may be cause by very early interest rate hike expecations
building up.
I believe we will see a test of the Monthly pivot point, perhaps already next week, on the back
of the Hammer that was formed right at the junction of the upper PF and the SMA200.
Now looking at the Pivots, on a Yearly basis we are still in clear bullish territory, trading above
the Yearly R1 with the next target by the Yearly R2. On a monthly timeframe price stands
between the Pivot Point and the R1. The normal tendency is for price to first test the Pivot Point,
thus that is the major trading plan for next week. The NFP report was solid but not excellent,
so the sharp drop after its release could also be explained by pure profit taking.
Will price turn by the Monthly pp or will we see a deeper correction to the Monthly S1?
In an uptrend price should not close below the S1, and in this case the Monthly S1. If we
see that it will be a warning that we might have a longer term top in place with a possible
move below the Yearly R1 towards the Weekly Kumo Cloud.
I think, trading on daily and lower timeframes, even bulls will be happy to cash in on the moves
and wait for an opportunity to get in again at a better price. Bears could play the Hammer either
by placing a stop above the pin or wait for a confirmation candle to see the pattern triggered.
A confirmation would be a weekly candle close below the low of the Hammer (The current weeks
candle).
Comment:
I think the candle stick pattern is called Shooting Star actually when it is confirmed.