EURUSD continues to carve a sequence of 3 wave moves. The pattern since mid-July shows an equal wave zig zag followed by a flat correction.
Nothing earth shattering from a trading perspective as indicators are mixed which supports the idea we are stuck in a correction of which we are currently in the middle. Look for extreme edges of the range to consider meaningful trades.
Here is a summary of the main variables/indicators we watch:
Elliott Wave Count - we appear to be in blue circle v of c - this means we are approaching ending waves at smaller degrees and prices may correct lower once these ending waves terminate
Wave Relationships - we look for harmony in the wave measurements and two of them show up in 1.1230-1.1330. Next level of wave relationships are in the low 1.14’s (short term bullish; medium term bearish)
SSI - current reading is -2.1 and this has dropped from -1.4 over the past week. Long positions are down 8.7% from last week and short positions have grown +29.8% over last week. Traders are clearly shifting to the short side. SSI is a contrarian indicator. (bullish)
OBV - Volume is beginning to diverge compared to the latest peak from July 27. This indicates a lack of conviction and probable continuation of range trading. (bearish from higher levels)
I have something to disagree with this concept. The completion of 4th wave is not yet done. It will finish around 1.028, and the pull back will not go above 1.11236. Have a look at this chart
Shukz
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As the trendline broke...are we gonna still expect it to point C?
JWagnerFXTrader
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The red line break is concerning. This could be a wave 4 triangle. A move below Aug 13 low of 1.1080 will be cause to pause.
The post earlier today on EURGBP suggests EUR underperformance. I thought it would have still yielded EURUSD higher.
finitemonk
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Do you have the larger wave sequence? I'm a bit perplexed since we apparently formed a wave (e) in Mid June, formed one impulse wave drop, from 1.1435 to 1.095 then it's a mess basically ... hehe.
I've looked around and no-one seems to have a suggested larger count.
JWagnerFXTrader
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In real time, I was thinking that drop you mention was an impulse. Possibly the C wave of a downward flat.
However, since that point, it has gotten messy for sure. I could print some options but it may end up being more confusing than helpful. If we scroll out, I'm leaning that we are in a bigger degree 'b' wave that began on either May 17 or May 27. It may have ended on July 20 but that would mean a grind higher in complex fashion.
b waves are a mess. So pick trades carefully in the meantime until the form clears up.
What are you leaning towards?
IvanLabrie
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Pretty much the same view. I'm counter long and will flip short at wave.5