Kumowizard
Long

Reading the 4 drivers

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
295 1 9
SPX:
- Bullish , but it has started consolidation and small pull back
- First important support is 2020+. Below Kijun 1985 and 1945 next.
- Bullish momentum is dropping, but thick Kumo ahead is kind of better support.

EURUSD:
- Bullish , but reaching 1,1460 key resistance. haDelta has a serious warning -> no pickup in momentum at all.
This pair is just ticking higher (Likely because USD is sold more against other ccys than EUR.)
- EWO is not making a new high either
- No dount it will be a buy, but I'd prefer only buying it on dips
- Supports: 1,1365 / 1,1160-1,1200

WTI:
- Bullish , with good momentum
- some warning: haDelta has reached a local high. This pace of buying may not be sustainable short term. We can see some bullish consolidation or drop of momentum . Candle bodies will likely shrink a bit. It doesn't mean deterioration of px             action, just less agressive buying.
- Supports: 38,35 / 35,25

Gold:
- Bullish breakout above Kijun and possibly a continuation to follow. Hold longs!
- Note: Silver             and Platinum             shows even stronger momentum , as they were lagging earlier this year, when Gold             did its massive rally.)


Strategy:
1. I still prefer holding Gold             and Platinum             longs.
2. EURUSD             I don't like buying here. I think there are better crosses to short USD than ag. EUR, and probably we'll have better levels too.
3. WTI I do not have any position (though I should have some longs) directly, but I hold NOK             longs.
4. SPX             I think is building a top, and my feeling is we'll see same pattern as during November/2015 -> down to/below Kijun, up again, down, up and finally break down. It will be annoying in that case. I hold 2 unit of shorts, but with tight flat stop.

5. Not shown in this chart, but I started to short German Bund             futures in small.

My global macro view has not changed, actually it is firming:
I think while growth will be stubborn, inflation will anyway start to pick up. Commodity prices in general will stay bullish biased this year, which will push global inflation expectations higher. Bond curves will start to steepen, as Central Banks fckn do not care about inflation, they only care about debt service and systemic risks. This means 10y+ segment of curves will come under selling pressure. If long rates and yield start climbing higher, the DF             will rise too, which together with possibly lower corporate earnings will finally trigger a bear market in equities .
All this is just a theory. You don't have to trade theories, especially not others'! You only have to trade price action reflected in charts!
IvanLabrie PRO
8 months ago
Great breakdown and I think your theory does make sense.
Cheers.
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