GFunk

EUR/USD in ever tightening range ahead of Greece Mark III

FX:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
There may be trouble ahead...

Grexit is hiding in the shadows behind Brexit, but former Greek FinMin believes Grexit in 2016 is more likely than last July. Greece has a colossal amount of ECB debt obligations to meet in July. Negotiations and general turbulence look set to hit its peak in the month before, just as the Brexit vote is taking place.

But while theres moonlight and music, and love and romance...

Since 2015, EUR/USD             has been rangebound between 1.05 and 1.16 (approx). Spot is trading close to the top of the range, and looks supported due to upward trend channel, and RSI trend higher and the 50W SMA sat snuggly below. A flattening of the 50 & 200W SMAs, and extended ranging in oversold territory of the slow stochastic , indicates a continuation of the status quo. Bare in mind that this is a weekly chart and there are still several hundred pips of juicy range to play within for now.

Lets face the music and dance...

In the longer term, I'd imagine that there are still some people who have been short EUR/USD             from a long way down.

With Leave in the Brexit vote creeping into the lead, and the vote maybe influenced by the UK publics reactions to the handling of the Greek situation and any migrant/terrorist related chaos, it wouldn't surprise me if some people were taking money off the table, and readjusting positions ahead of June (Brexit vote) and July (Greek crisis), with a view to get short for a fresh push for parity again.
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