Last week the U.S. economy showed good signs of job creation, CPI index at 0.1%, housing starts were strong.
The conference broad still expect moderate economic growth, building permits plummeted, the S&P 500 growth are plummeting.
I have two opinions on why the Fed might be biased to raise rates this September, and why it might not?
Why it might do?
Clearly the Fed won't raise rates with many bps , it said if it does, it will raise it gradually in accommodation with the economic performance. Such raise won't necessarily make credit harder to get, as it will be still considered as CHEAP money. Another reason maybe be due to Fed's credibility related issues. Yellen has been saying that raising rates decision will be based on consistent job growth and figures, and both have been printing figures that are in tandem with her basis for the final decision, if she doesn't do as she said, the Fed might lose credibility (a true asset they need). Capital migration from everywhere to the US shall boost and asset prices for homes and other goods, it might also help in filling the budget gap. Also plunging oil prices is causing fuel driven companies to save more and hold reserve cash that they clearly do not know what to do with, that will cause wages to increase and by that boosting the economy.
Why it might not raise?
If global markets are poised to go for recessions like China for example, this might drag the U.S. again into the swirl. Falling oil prices are dampening globally, in a time where the Fed is ahead of global central banks in the deleveraging process. With China de-valuating the Yuan, a new time for currency wars began, and many other countries in the EM markets may follow the act, sending the U.S. dollar stronger and hurting American exports. Looking at Gold prices everyone is shifting their money into the safe haven metal, as gold returned into the green candle territory. There are many other global economic risks that signal that the U.S. should not take the road of deleveraging all alone.
I have been waiting for a break out of the 1.15 or the 1.04 level since January of this year and the pair finally did. The pair finally created a daily green candle closing above the 1.15 key . This puts my bias on the side, but given the fundamental risks that the Fed might raise interest rates very soon, I believe that there is a high possibility of a fake breakout due to the divergence in technicals and fundamentals. To look further, the pair has been printing higher lows since March, then found a rejected triple bottom (3 blue circles) at 1.08. The final bottom was on the 5th of August and was followed by a rebound to touch the 1.170 figure. Now if prices are to continue with the uptrend and continue to trade above the 200 daily moving average (which adds to my sentiment), I believe the next target should be the 1.2000 round number. But given the high market uncertainty of the near future, especially on such a volatile pair, bulls (smart money dudes) might want to see a re-test of the 1.100 figure trading at the 50 DMA. I believe that the pair will retrace from this rebound and will figure a to push until it reaches, 1.10 before it pulls the trigger.
For now I would short the pair with a trailing stop loss, and keep the market riding with target of 1.10 but I will not set a take profit limit, in case Fed rose interest rates and prices kept falling.