The bearish pulse clearly continues to beat in the EUR/USD market! In the early hours of yesterday’s London session, a strong wave of offers brought price below the 1.12 handle and then eventually broke through H4 demand at 1.1168-1.1198 (now acting supply). It was only once price entered into the later hours of the American session did we see the shared currency violate the 1.1143 H4 low (underside of daily demand at 1.1143-1.1179).
Technically, this sell-off has the potential to continue according to our analysis on the weekly chart. Weekly bears continue to reflect bearish intentions from weekly supply at 1.1533-1.1278 that has capped this market since May 2015. The next downside target from this angle can be seen at 1.0796 – a weekly support. Down on the daily chart, price recently closed beyond daily demand at 1.1143-1.1179 (now acting supply), potentially clearing the rubble for a try at daily demand coming in at 1.1057-1.1108.
Our suggestions: Although direction is relatively clear on this pair at the moment (see above), trading short is tricky in our opinion. A sell from the H4 resistance at 1.1143 looks great at first glance, but when one looks over to the daily chart and notices that the top-side of daily demand is sitting just below it at 1.1108, risk/reward is pretty poor! Given the tight trading conditions here, we’re going to place this pair on the sidelines today and reassess going into tomorrow’s sessions.