Today the calendar is scheduled the Yellen speaking, and this event will put the dollar in the spotlight (and all related currencies). Until now, even after reading the minutes, we have two key aspects:
- The Fed does not like a dollar too strong - Economic data releases are less strong than expected
These values are in support of maintaining the current interest rates. We argue that the Fed will keep rates low until at least September, if not until December. In trading is difficult to have the "certainties", but what we can say is that in the medium to long term, the divergence of the central banks (FED and ECB) should maintain this dollar supported against the major currencies. Only "contradiction" is that the expansionary monetary policy of Draghi will attract many investors and this could "restrict" the weakness of euro against dollar (medium-long term). It will be important to monitor the CPI (inflation)!!!!
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I am thinking as well, FED could send a signal to the market increasing rate by the minimal 0.50 or less to cool down the share market. She made a comment about the high level few weeks ago.
On the other part BCE is increasing the QE to prevent summer time and Greece is far from getting things sorted. Lets see. By the way nice work SignalSuisse
TheAnonymousBanker
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agree .... agree..... agree..... :)
Mo6e
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Thank for that piece of information. I missed on my fundamental the piece of "cooling down the share market.
tufan.yaveroglu
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good job sir ,is the graphic still valid after Yellen spoken ? thank you
samed.karsanbas
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it was amazing analysis...
TheAnonymousBanker
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Thanks Samed!!
eBayApple
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Very good study-
It is in the same way that my study of DX. This indice is in a congestion area and trying to retest 93.670.
Thanks!
I appreciate your analysis. In my view as I red the last press release of FOMC from the last meeting the rate hike will take place as you said probably in September (or in the last quarter. I do not know how the market will react during today's speeche from Yellen, for sure I will watch carefully the CPI. However my view is long for EUR/USD til 1.18 event 1.20. At middle summer if targets confirmed I will look to short EUR/USD til 1:1. Have a nice trading.
On the other part BCE is increasing the QE to prevent summer time and Greece is far from getting things sorted. Lets see. By the way nice work SignalSuisse