Nearly all of the major houses and financial media are calling for a neutered Draghi at today's rate decision and presser. I don't believe he's stirred enough support and I don't believe the outlook has deteriorated enough in Europe to warrant further action. BOC
balked, I expect ECB to balk, as well. That said, with such one-sided consensus thinking, there's an opportunity to take advantage of going long "relatively" cheap puts. Implied volatility
on Eur futures
is sitting in the 23rd percentile with the front-month contract clinging to the 1.0910 level it's vacillated around since last month's Draghi disappointment.