With the highly anticipated referendum vote coming out of Greece this weekend, emotions will likely be running high on the open of trading Sunday for the EURUSD. With a highly charged event coming soon, I like to take a step back and assess what the waves are suggesting so as not to rely on other’s analysis and their opinions once the news is released.
First of all, current sentiment readings are clocking in at -1.79. This means 64% of EURUSD retail traders are currently short. SSI is a contrarian tool which suggests further gains are likely. This is because these traders are already positioned in the market so they become a future pool of buyers.
Now, looking at the Elliott Wave picture, the higher probability counts are noted in green text box on the chart. That means on June 28, prices completed red wave (c) which is an ending wave to the downside. That leaves a simple 5 wave move higher that likely breaks 1.1465. That also suggests we may be beginning red wave (iii) of that 5 wave move now. Third waves tend to be the longest and strongest and the Greek vote could provide the rocket fuel.
For those unfamiliar with EW and if you wish to see the idealized pattern at play, view this link and place the June 28 EURUSD low at the start of the blue line higher. In essence, the “you are here” dot would be starting the climb up the blue line.
www.dailyfx.com...e-Analysis.html?cmp=SFS-70...
Elliott Wave analysis is probabilistic. We never know for certain what is going to happen so it is certainly possible for prices to drop hard on Sunday. I have those counts de-emphasized and listed in the red text box. De-emphasized means they are lower probability in my opinion, but still possible.
Bottom line, my bias is bullish and 1.0815 is the key level which would turn me bearish. If you missed the long entry in the 1.09-1.10 area we’ve discussed for the past couple weeks, the closer a trade can be entered near 1.0815, the better risk to reward ratio.
On Monday’s weekly US Opening Bell webinar, we’ll update the action from Sunday and eliminate counts as needed to see what the higher probability move is going forward. You are more than welcome to join with a free 14 day registration to the DailyFX Plus Live Classroom:
www.dailyfx.com...trading_signals?cmp=SFS-70...
The webinar is held at 9:30a ET (New York time) and the archive will be made available afterwards at the same spot.
In closing, keep in mind prices are likely to open a significant distance away from where they close today. I don’t know if the gap would be higher or lower so there is risk of getting slipped on a stop loss or stop entry on the Sunday open. If you hold a trade over the weekend, make sure it is small so a slipped trade doesn’t eat too much of your equity.
I would be interested in hearing from other EW’ers what your preferred count is. Good luck!
First of all, current sentiment readings are clocking in at -1.79. This means 64% of EURUSD retail traders are currently short. SSI is a contrarian tool which suggests further gains are likely. This is because these traders are already positioned in the market so they become a future pool of buyers.
Now, looking at the Elliott Wave picture, the higher probability counts are noted in green text box on the chart. That means on June 28, prices completed red wave (c) which is an ending wave to the downside. That leaves a simple 5 wave move higher that likely breaks 1.1465. That also suggests we may be beginning red wave (iii) of that 5 wave move now. Third waves tend to be the longest and strongest and the Greek vote could provide the rocket fuel.
For those unfamiliar with EW and if you wish to see the idealized pattern at play, view this link and place the June 28 EURUSD low at the start of the blue line higher. In essence, the “you are here” dot would be starting the climb up the blue line.
www.dailyfx.com...e-Analysis.html?cmp=SFS-70...
Elliott Wave analysis is probabilistic. We never know for certain what is going to happen so it is certainly possible for prices to drop hard on Sunday. I have those counts de-emphasized and listed in the red text box. De-emphasized means they are lower probability in my opinion, but still possible.
Bottom line, my bias is bullish and 1.0815 is the key level which would turn me bearish. If you missed the long entry in the 1.09-1.10 area we’ve discussed for the past couple weeks, the closer a trade can be entered near 1.0815, the better risk to reward ratio.
On Monday’s weekly US Opening Bell webinar, we’ll update the action from Sunday and eliminate counts as needed to see what the higher probability move is going forward. You are more than welcome to join with a free 14 day registration to the DailyFX Plus Live Classroom:
www.dailyfx.com...trading_signals?cmp=SFS-70...
The webinar is held at 9:30a ET (New York time) and the archive will be made available afterwards at the same spot.
In closing, keep in mind prices are likely to open a significant distance away from where they close today. I don’t know if the gap would be higher or lower so there is risk of getting slipped on a stop loss or stop entry on the Sunday open. If you hold a trade over the weekend, make sure it is small so a slipped trade doesn’t eat too much of your equity.
I would be interested in hearing from other EW’ers what your preferred count is. Good luck!
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www.seethewaves.com - A school to learn how to read charts & Elliott Wave Theory.
EW Express - bit.ly/elliottwaveexpress
