DISCLAIMER: Hi everyone, this is just a log book for me on applying everything that I have learned and continue to learn as I go along. That being said, I do not advise you to base your trading on these "ideas".
Alright guys so last week I wanted to try and trade this pair. Its a tricky and very volatile. I was able to spot a few things during this past week, one of them being a rejection of an ascending trendline that I saw and could have presented itself with plenty of profit. This week was a crappy one for me, mainly because of lot sizes, over confidence and random trading instead of following a plan. So right now Im sitting at -0.32% for the month. This week I will try to take less trades, look at more long term opportunities and bigger swings. The way I plan to control this is by entering with 0.01 lots and compounding on every rejection of an MA or trendline. With that being said, lets take a look at this pair which was heavily influenced by political news, and president disapproval.
So lets just begin by looking at the charts and later we I will rant about political views.
Daily: Alright so there is for sure and clearly here an uptrend. Prices straying away from the trendline and rising uncontrolably. There are some resistance-turned support areas around 1.08494, but these areas are not important at the moment. The areas I want to talk about or focus on are the following: 1.16826 was a support area where we saw the price retrace to after its last spike. 1.18899 was a resistance area followed by the spike at 1.19103 earlier this month. Which was broken this past friday after Yellen and Dhragi speaches at Jackson hole and closing at 1.19196 this week. Now lets look at the next areas of support and resistance. We had already mentioned the 1.18899 area as the previous spike, but turns out this was a previous support area back in July of 2010. Also a drop in 2012 that reached 1.20548 formed a support area before being broken in 2014. Prices have not reached those levels until now. So we can expect maybe a touch of those areas and would be possible targets for this pair.
4hr: Alright lets take a look at this a little closer and look for entries. So we have obvious resistance that was broken around the 1.18240 area. I have also dawn a small ascending trendline I was able to spot this week and that I wrote about in my previous post on EUR/USD. So what I believe is that maybe this pair will open with a huge gap after all the movement from friday. Maybe a retracement back to 1.18240 or the ascending trendline. Why? Traders taking profit, banks, etc. all that stuff. But because things like president disapproval, hurricane passing through texas, all that will bring the dollar down and the Euro up. So this week I will look to buy.