- No change since last post. , but price struggles to break below 1,0950 key resistance.
- Heikin-Ashi is still , but haDelta and DMO ticked higher towards zero
- histogram moved bit higher too -> minor positive divergence
- supports at 1,1075 / 1,1120 / 1,1160
- , but
- Heikin-Ashi price action is , but quite decent positive divergence has been built in DMO (haDelta) and in EWO -> It can be difficult now to push price lot lower without more consolidation or a pull back.
During Draghi's press conference price action will be volatile as usual. The real question is if the ECB announces something big, which crashes EUR finally, or we'll see only a knee jerk selling followed by a spike higher. Technical picture tells me it is time to be careful with shorts. This is not a good risk/reward entry point, and there is a higher probability of a short term pull back.
Why are EUR bonds under selling pressure? Why are periferia bond spreads over Bund wider? Tapering fear? If that's the case, and ECB signals any idea of an exit strategy, is it for the EUR? Or if the reason behind bond spread moves is fear of Eurozone crises, then ok, EUR has to go lower, but then what the hell are equities doing up here?
For me the clearest trades are short BTP and Bono vs Long Bund .
In FX ( EURUSD ) and in Equities I have less confidence to take big positions.