I have entered one long position at 1.1860 last night as the fundamentals align for a bullish Euro and a weak Dollar. The ECB have stated that Euro strength isn't as much of a concern and generally had a less dovish statement. Am aiming for 1.2000 again. Price has however since broke back below the support level where I took the trade so really need to see it break back above and also above yesterday's highs to show more conviction of moving toward 1.2000.
Could potentially look at adding to the position with a clean break and retest of 1.1900.
Trade closed manually
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This position went aagainst me for a long time (over a month) due to an increased outbreak of COVID-19 across Europe and a lack of agreement on a US stimulus package. I didn't trade for a month as was heavily over leveraged. Have closed this position down manually now for a £4 profit as price is back testing daily highs going back to when I opened the position. Need to get my head back into the fundamentals before I trade this pair again.
Really appreciate your analysis on this, on the back of the stimulus announcement yesterday, coupled with a great NFP - I'm surprised this pair hasn't been moving in a more bearish direction.
Be keen to hear your updated analysis as things move, but I'm also currently long on this pair.
RichardEdwards
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@Rasper, I think the problem with strong prints from the US at the minute is the FED have said that they are happy to surpass their 2% inflation target before raising rates again. It's struggling to gain any upside traction at the moment though. Markets seem risk on today so would expect a rise. I think if we break the 1.9000 we should be a little better positioned to move back toward 1.2000 over time. I'm also long AUD/USD but that is also struglling to gain any upward momentum. I think the recent sell off in equities have gone against the AUD.
Be keen to hear your updated analysis as things move, but I'm also currently long on this pair.