Kumowizard
Long

Correction after ECB?

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
699 1 11
Divergencies can't last forever! After some point either the positive divergence has to disappear due to an even heavier bearish price action, or the price should start correction.

Daily:
- Ichimoku setup is bearish and will remain bearish until price is below 1,10, but Kijun started to flatten a bit.
- Heikin Ashi printed a doji candle yesterday. Today candle may be green or doji again. Price is still below Tenkan Sen. haDelta ticking up but it has to break and stay above zero line to confirm correction.
- First key level is 1,0650-1,0670 (Tekan and SAR             ), second is 1,0825

4H:
- Price broke out of the bullish wedge finally, but it doesn't mean it can not try one more retest of the broken line until/on Thursday.
- Ichimoku is turning to neutral: weak bullish Tenkan/Kijun and Kumo ahead shades price.
- Key reversal level is 1,0665
- Heikin Ashi is bullish biased, but wait fro Ichimoku break before you load any longs!
- EWO: minor cross above zero, but it needs more confirmation as same has happened on 19/November.

For sure it will be extremely choppy around ECB announcement, and even more during Draghi's press conference.
I doubt we see a bullish breakout on 4H before ECB. More likely we will see one more drop t retest previous wedge.
When the drop happens, you can setup your stop buy orders, this way you can not get triggered too early, before ECB due to some position squareing spike. Also during a drop we have to watch if it makes a lower low or not.

Market has become extremely short positionned in EURUSD! The trade is very crowded. Meanwhile the expectations for ECB action is very high, as Draghi has promised to "bring down the stars". The smallest deterioration from the highly expected measures could trigger a massive and quick short squeeze, likley up to 1,09-1,10. However there it will be recommended to exit all swing long positions, because next week market will likely sell the pair again ahead of FED.

Alternative trade idea:
before enterring any outright swing longs, you may consider buying a 1 or 2 months Call Spread 1,08/1,12

I will keep you posted on 4H time frame here or on Twitter.
gLloWaves
a year ago
Thanks for pointing out the divergence! It has been going on for over a month now, it will lead to a big move up.
Reply
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