The EURUSD pair is approaching the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which has been unbroken since the week of June 14 2021. This is a simple analysis on the 1W time-frame, showing the price action of the pair since 2006. As you see the pair's major long-term rallies have started after it broke above the 1W MA50, especially when the 1W RSI made such a strong jump, following multi-year downtrends.
As you see, the 1W RSI has gone from 26.00 to 55.00 in less than two months, representing the strongest rise on such short time-frame since March 2015. Though a 1W candle closing above the 1W MA50 doesn't necessarily guarantee a huge rally, as with the (very rare) examples of February 2016 and the once in 100 years event of COVID March 2020, it does indicate that the market has bottomed.
A standard first target in 1W MA50 rallies is the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) and above that, any uptrend has been limited by the Lower Highs trend-line (dashed) that started on the November 23 2009 candle.
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It's hard to have much faith in a rally in the EU when a lot of industries in Europe are closing down because electricity rates are 5x to 10x higher than last year. They are short of natural gas and many Europeans won't have the heat to heat their water let alone their homes. Their economy is on life support and the government is trying to shore things up by spending money it doesn't have, which creates inflation. It reminds me of the scene from the titanic just before the stern gets lifted into the water. People still think there is hope and are calm and collective pretty much. 5 minutes later things will change drastically. Take for example 2 weeks ago BASF announced they are move their major chemical plant from Germany to China. They make 40,000 chemicals that are essential to pretty much every industry in Europe from making plastics to steel to pharmaceuticals. Now they have to get the chemicals from China. I personally think this is a risky move by BASF because China (CCP) can end up owning their manufacturing plant anytime they like. The EU ship is taking on vast amounts of water and people on deck still don't realize it's going down. They are still organizing shuffleboard matches instead of getting into the lifeboats. The ship will be under water in 6 months. It's hard for me to start cheering for an EU currency rally when I know the currency is doomed. Just my thoughts.
Solldy
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Nice work, mate! Totally agree with your way of thinking, and the news supports the idea)
UnknownUnicorn15614419
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I second that! It's a little early to make a prediction now, of course, but all the arguments are the same as the ones I highlighted for myself. So, my scenario is almost completely the same)