captain_smollett

EURUSD. Small ABCD, big ABCD

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
Looks like the market will prepare the rate hike next week...

My entry points for a long position: now or 1.1230.
SL: 1.12
TP1: 1.1291, TP2: 1.1300, TP3: 1. 1320            

My entry points for a short position: will place a sell limit order at 1.1300
SL: 1.137
TP1: 1.1200; TP2: 1.1160, TP3: 1.1110

Once there, will review the market once again.
Comment: Small ABCD started to work, heading to TP1
Comment: TP1 reached. Long to breakeven
Comment: 4H timeframe (chart below) not showing any alterations of divergences. Can retrace to 1.1230 which still would be a good level for re-etnering longs.

Any break below 1.1230 is an alert and a break below 1.1200 for me would mean we have entered into a bearish phase.
Comment: TP2 hit. Opened short position, still expecting TP3 to be reached
Comment: High volatility time is approaching. Keeping both long and short positions, removing SLs. Will close them manually.

Important levels to watch are:
Supports: 1.1200, 1.1160, 1.1120 as per Big ABCD pattern
Resistances: 1.1330, 1.1350

I have set a buy limit order at 1.1200 and sell order limit at 1.1450 . Both levels can be reached between today and Monday next week
Comment: Just wanted to mention a detail which for me is quite important: at 15.00 CET (9.00 a.m. ET) the journalists will receive the briefs of Janet Yellen´s speech. If you remember, USD took a nice dip when, some days ago, one of the FED respresentatives said that the whole monetary policy needs a review a re-design.

Therefore, if some Reuters or Bloomberg posts a headline similar to "Yellen will talk about changes in the entire policy system", watch USD to dive.

A perfect setup would be: EURUSD goes to 1.12 on GDP news, we buy, move a long to breakeven and then get the news from the FED.
Comment: No changes in GDP, no changes for USD. All left to the journalists
Comment: And here comes Big ABCD movement. First target - 1.12
Comment: Big ABCD pattern hasn´t been invalidated
Comment: Big ABCD TP1 reached
Comment: Almost hit TP2. All shorts are at breakeven
Comment: Keeping one short. Even after today´s USD turn, I expect 1.1110 to be hit on the NPF volatility.
Trade closed: target reached: We have only one target left: tagging a daily 200 MA, small false break and then should pop.

I keep following this on another chart
Now, which way the market would go until FED meeting Yellen talk ? i need only 1.1284 about.. do you think would it go there tomorrow or will continue down ?
Reply
I expect a 1.1230 retrace in asian session tonight (I´m at the CET time zone) and then up to 1.13. Yellen´s speach should bring volatility, therefore, 1.11 area can easily be reached by Friday. There is also a US GDP revision on Friday, it can bring volatility even before Yellen
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snapshot

Slowly crawling over last 24 hours. I´d like to see one more little leg up to close one more long and open a short position.
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Built another fork, looks much better to me
snapshot
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