tomasz.goljan
Long

EUR/USD Longs "Everyone's At It"

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
It looks like everyone is trying to pick the bottom on EUR/USD             in last few days, is there any chance that last week lows at 1,336 level will work as an bottom for few next weeks ? Just to clarify I'm bearish on EUR/USD             in Longer term but we really might be starting an corection phase here and now.

Techs :
* 1,335 - 1,34 Level is an Huge demand zone at daily and weekly time frame.
* 1,337 is 50% Fibo retracement of the last rally from 1,275 to 1,399
* We may need an correction towards shown levels (1,351-2 and 1,37) to colect more sellers and put more selling presure on the EUR/USD             curency pair.

Fundamentals :
* It's hard to find anything to support Euro             to be honest.. In longer run everything is poiting towards lower exchange rate of the Euro             Zone currency..
* The only thing bulls might coun on is that the real Dolar rally has not begun yet and that should start in 2-3 months time when FED will end tappering and rate hikes talks will start.
* Last weeks USA job reports may be something to feed the Bulls but to be hones ? Another strong NFP reading, unemployment rate rose beacouse of participation rate change, the only thing that may be bad for Dollar is smaller then expected wage growth.
* Taking an Euro             Zone inflation levels into consideration we might see talks about an ABS or QE             like program to fight the deflation threat by ECB and if that happen then Euro             will drop further without asking about technical levels

To sum up, I'd be cautious but we might be in a good spot to enter an Long trade with small stop loss aiming for an test of 1,35 and 1,37 levels beofre the Down trend will resume. I'd preffer to see another test of 1,336-7 zone before entering that kind of trade.
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