EURUSD is breaking up from its 20 week accumulation period. All this time, commercials have been long Euro futures, and we have seen fundamentals take a turn south for the dollar, and risk in US and global equities. Except for the recent relief rally, action has been predominantly bearish, which paired with the very dramatic rallies in the Euro and Yen, make me think that the big fish have been closing carry trades left and right.
As for the technicals, we have a potential time at mode weekly uptrend and an interesting weekly neowave chart at play. Many analysts are seeing this as a bearish wxy combo of some kind (mostly derived from traditional Elliott Wave analysis) whereas I see these intraday 'waves' mostly as noise, since the bigger picture tells me a different story.
I'll attempt to capture range expansion up, triggering a rally out of this 20 week mode, or catching a gap down in case we do have one more selloff after the IMF meetings this weekend. We already have a new weekly high, so I'll try a smaller entry here first if we don't get weekly range expansion before the close. Either way, I'll try the long side. Target is on chart, I like how rgmov is posting new 2 month highs, and how most analysts are bearish and thinking the Euro goes down to parity from here, which I see as unlikely at this point, since rates are delayed until 2016.
Good luck!
Ivan Labrie Time at Mode FX
Trade active
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I didn't update but I'm in since 1.1354.
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Weekly has confirmed an uptrend by closing above the mode, 20 week uptrend in place.
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Bearish failure...this is very bullish for the Euro.
Trade closed: stop reached
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Weekly time at mode trend signal failure. Seems like the scenario changed, I'm still positive on dollar weakness overall, otherwise we would see rallies in usdcad, and vs other dollar instruments, when we're not.
If it breaks this speed line it'll slide down, hard, boosting our EURUSD long.
marelli
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Hi, I think is possible before going up to 1.16 it would go down to 1.129/1.13 area. I think also that It will go up to 1.16 area but not so fast as many think, which is next week. Trend is upward. I think some profit can be made early next week in short position but go long at 1.130
I hope my comment make sense.
IvanLabrie
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It makes sense if that's what you believe.
Do you have any charts?
My scenario is that of a massive uptrend, so there won't be opportunity to short safely.
Banesnake
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Sir Ivan, from what sources you know that the commercials have been long Euro futures? Thank you if you can share with us
IvanLabrie
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Check this link out: finviz.com/ Go to futures, currencies, and select Euro. The weekly timeframe is very clear.
Also, try the dollar and the Swiss Franc.
Commercials have gone net long Euro and Franc and net short Dollar recently.
Banesnake
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Thank you very much!
IvanLabrie
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Anytime ;)
Cheers!
RCP_
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Thanks Ivan
Could you please explain to me how the "RgMov" indicator works? Is it a public or private script?
IvanLabrie
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It's a proprietary indicator, created by Tim West, my mentor.
It helps me analyze trends. You can google Tim's publications where he explains how to use it.
If it breaks this speed line it'll slide down, hard, boosting our EURUSD long.