Long to 1.14120-1.14952, then Short to below 1.00

FX:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
72 0 1
On December 16th, when price was at 1.08-09, I began forecasting a rally in the Euro             to two upper targets: 1.222 and 1.14119. That forecast and my followup analysis are posted at

On February 4th-5th, the wave B triangle did produce a rally which exceeded my first target, reaching 1.12448. By my count, that was the peak of the 3rd wave of wave C.

That was followed by a brief decline, another rally up to 1.3764 and then a decline down to 1.10717. I count this as the majority of the 4th wave of wave C.

In the last day's wave action, there has been a rally and another decline, and the start of another rally, shaping into a contracting pattern: I perceive that the 4th wave is ending as a triangle. Making a preliminary estimate of the parameters of the triangle based on what I can see thus far, and a post-triangle thrust measurement based on that, it is remarkable that from the "end" of the triangle where its trendlines converge the height of the implied minimum thrust is 1.14121.

I expect the Euro             to rally to this level, at minimum. I also allow room for a final rally up to but not to exceed 1.14952, as I believe this entire sequence since December to be a 2nd wave (of a greater 5th wave) corresponding to a 1st wave which started downward from 1.14952.

I anticipate the peak of the rally in the 1.14** range to mark the beginning of the Euro's decline to below parity with the Dollar.
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