Amr-Sadek

EURUSD 11-15 Mar 2024 W11 Weekly Analysis – US CPI Week

FOREXCOM:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
This is my Weekly analysis on EURUSD for 11-15 Mar 2024 W11 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following Time Frames:

  1. Weekly
  2. Daily
  3. 4H
  4. Economic Events


Weekly Chart Analysis


1.

  • Swing Bearish
  • Internal Bearish
  • Reached Swing EQ
  • (Pro Swing + Pro Internal)

2.

  • After the Bearish iBOS we expected pullback, price tapped into Liq on the lift and a Weekly demand zone which provided a pullback and formed a bullish CHoCH confirming INT Low.
  • Price reached the INT Extreme and tapped the Weekly Supply Zone and as expected we are targeting at least the CHoCH and then the Weak INT Low.
  • Price did the Bearish ChoCH and formed a fresh Supply zone which will be potential for shorts once reached to continue the Bearish INT structure and Swing too.

3.

  • With the Bearish INT Structure we have the confirmation that the Swing Pullback is over and we are currently in the Swing Continuation Phase.
  • Price had reached the Bearish INT Structure extreme and showed reaction from which resulted in a Bearish CHoCH.
  • Price swept the Liq above the Weekly demand and now targeting the Liq below the Weekly Supply for bearish continuation.
  • Expectation will be after reaching the weekly supply is to see price continuing bearish.

Daily Chart Analysis


1.

  • Swing Bearish
  • INT Bearish
  • Swing Continuation / INT Pullback

2.

  • Within the Daily Bearish Swing we reached the Swing extreme area and mitigated a Weekly Supply zone and formed a bearish iBOS confirming the Swing Pullback is over and we are Pro Bearish Swing and starting the Continuation Phase targeting the Weak Swing Low.

3.

  • After the Bearish iBOS we expected a Pullback.
  • After mitigating the Daily Demand zone we formed a Bullish CHoCH which confirmed the INT Structure Pullback Phase started.
  • Expectations is set now for the INT Structure Pullback Phase to continue to the INT EQ up to the Daily/Weekly Supply. But be mindful that the Swing Bearish continuation can continue at any time.
  • There is no HP POI for Shorts up to the Daily/Weekly Supply Zones.
  • IMO Price could continue up to sweep LIQ from the INT Momentum Phase that leaded to the iBOS before we continue down.

4.
  • Daily and Weekly demand zones for reactions once reached.

4H Chart Analysis


1.

  • Swing Bearish
  • INT Bullish
  • Swing Pullback Phase

2.

  • After a BOS and iBOS we expect a Pullback.
  • As expected after the Bullish CHoCH and mitigation of 4H/Daily Demand zones, we initiated the INT Structure Pullback.
  • Price reached the 4H/Daily Supply and from there we could start the bearish continuation.
  • Price failed to continue the bearish move and as expected it changed bullish and created iBOS confirming Swing Low and Bearish Swing Pullback Phase started.

3.

  • 4H Swing pullback phase still active with Internal Structure continuing bullish with a new iBOS.
  • After iBOS we expect a pullback and as expected price reached the supply zone above the Swing EQ, also sweeping the Liq above the Supply zone which could initiate an INT Pullback for the Bullish INT Structure.
  • CHoCH will be the first sign for the INT Structure Pullback.

4.

  • Be mindful that we were ranging for a period of time and price just broke that range with momentum. Most probably we will have a deep pullback phase to the daily supply before we can initiate the 4H Bearish continuation phase.
  • Keeping my bullish bias till i see solid evidence with 4H bearish break of structure to confirm the 4H Continuation phase is starting.


Economic Events for the Week