Bears Bruise-Battled; Onto Bastille Day | $EUR $USD #ECB #forex

FX:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar


This long-term forecast was initiated on 28 FEB 2014 when an overhead target was defined per this following chart and analysis:

"Case For A Major Reversal":

As the target got validated to the top-side, we turned to an inteernal development of a Wolfe Wave pattern, heralding a high-probability reversal at a terminal Point-5, as per this following chart and analysis:

"Technical Analysis: Getting It Right And Wrong"

Shortly thereafter, as price was unfolding in the forecast direction, we lightened the technical tone down to turn to fundamentals, as per this following chart and analysis:

"Is France Party Pooping On The EZ?"

At this point, we are able to appreciate how well the forecast has held from last posting, as follows:

"Le Bear Beats Le Boeuf"

In this last chart development, the Wolfe Waves pattern held its ground and pushed price to its supposed direction, which is towards its 1-4 Take-Profit Line. With this powerful pattern in the background, an independent predictive/forecasting model was also used to determine targets that would open as the floor softened progressively.


At this point, the levels that were defined per predictive model remain intact, although relatively weak in probability, as they have been drawn off of a much larger timeframe.

Looking at the MOST IMMEDIATE timeframes (M15 to H4), the model defines the following risks and opps:

1 - Interim price action (M15 to H4) favors further decline to hard floor @ 1.32097
2 - Current rally potentially limited by soft structural resistance at 1.33413
3 - Strongest overhead resistance via bearish entrenchment within the 1.33741 to 1.33914 zone

Dominant trend remains bearish . If aforementioned "zone" is breached, price could rally up to, but unlikely above 1.35335, unless significant institutional interference beats the weak-hands and plucks stop-losses out of the bloody muck, all the way to 1.36917 - How likely is this punitive scenario? Not likely, at least not encompassed in the model (yet).

Following is a preliminary of the H4 chart:



Expect a limited bearish push to around 1.32097 before a reactionary rally occurs, favored by predictive model. If price were to indeed hold at this level, a bullish counter-offensive stands a chance to punch price back to significant structural overhead resistance levels, between 1.35345-nose bleeding to 1.36917 concussive levels.


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA

Twitter: @4xForecaster
David Alcindor
Alias: 4xForecaster

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04 SEP 2014 - Update:

In the grand scheme of things, nothing has changed in the bearish tack of the $EUR.

The (non)triumphant arched pathway carries on down its fading elysean fields, likely to exhibit its ataxic cobblestoned gait all the way to its rendez-vous on the 4th - Allons, enfants de la patrie, ou donc est parti le jour de gloire?

Les sillons sanglants sont plus proches que nos campagnes, for sure.


+1 Reply
24 AUG 2014 - Update:

From Twitter:
$EURUSD - Model signals a potential reversal in the 1.21988 to 1.32097 range:

via @tradingview | $EUR $USD #Forex


Aside from the model's signaling a potential reversal in the 1.21988 to 1.32097 range, one has to also look at the WEEKLY chart (see WEEKLY chart below) to appreciate that current price is resting at the 38.2% significant Fibonacci level.


In addition, that same WEEKLY timeframe would also reveal that on the Elliott Wave basis, a corrective A-B-C pattern is nearing its geometric patterning right at a point where a perfect symmetry would also be reached - see DAILY chart below.



Predictive/forecasting model, simple Fibonacci data and Elliott Wave corrective geometry are all lining up to suggest a potential reversal in the 1.21988 to 1.32097 range.


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA

Twitter: @4xForecaster

+1 Reply
4xForecaster 4xForecaster
* * * Should read: " ... 1.31988 to 1.32097 range" and NOT " ... 1.21988 to 1.32097 range." * * *

- David Alcindor
+1 Reply
22 AUG 2014 - Update:

If the minor and intermediate wave counts are correct, price will rise up to a limited height as the corrective minor Wave-4 is shaping up at this moment.

This would thus suggest that an intermediate Wave-5 should ensue downward, towards the forecast target - Expect this Wave-5 to take the form of an Ending Triangle:

David Alcindor
+1 Reply
21 AUG 22014 - H4 Chart:

David Alcindor
+2 Reply
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