Predictive Analysis/Forecast: Bearish | $EUR $USD #ECB #Forex

FX:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
689 2 4

Looking at the EUR/USD             pair, there are several technical reasons to forge a bearish bias, or to the very least reconsider any bullish contemplation.


First, my predictive analysis and forecasting system confirmed a BEARISH market reversal signal on March 25th. At that time, price was hovering around 1.3806. The ensuing forecast defined the following two targets with probability (dates reflect time of posting):

1 - TG-1 = 1.36707 - 29 MAR 2014, high/moderate probability


2 - TG-Lo = 1.35008 - 29 MAR 2014, moderate/low probability.


On the basis of technical analysis alone, an upright head-and-shoulder ("H&S") dominates the field, casting its symmetrical head down to 1.34944, a value that corroborates tightly with my forecasting value, defined above.

Regarding anticipated price action, significant resistance is expected within a narrow 1.38550/1.38389 range, corresponding to a support-turned-resistance as price fell through and initiated an early market reversal sign this past week. However, 1.38749 remains the structural line that should concern bears, were price ever crossing-and-closing above it.


Bears dominate the chart, despite a relief rally occurring in a shorter-term chart (M15) from 1.3703 to a recent H&S spike, and a long-term chart (Daily) where bulls give no indication of weakness. This timeframe divergence should keep the bearish-biased trader in doubt, and the counter-trend trader interested in a potential interim decline to the levels defined above.

This trader's directional bias is neutral to bearish , while the system is bearish , yielding a net BEARISH bias.


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis and Forecasting

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David Alcindor, MOD
Independent Predictive Analyst/Financial Market Forecaster
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