EverythingForex

FULL ANALYSIS: EURUSD: All Roads Are Pointing South

Short
FX:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
Well, all roads have been pointing south for awhile now. At least the fundy guys got that one right! Oh wait, So did I! But I predicted this wold happen 2 MONTHS AGO! Sorry, fundies. I beat you to it again! Here's the proof:

In that chart from 2 months ago, here are my EXACT words:
The way I see it, this correction is unfolding in a ABC 5-3-5 Zigzag pattern. Wave (A) has completed in a 5 wave move. Wave (B) is a 3-wave abc move and is now completing with its' wave (c) being the upcoming decline. After wave (B) is done, the wave (C) up would begin in earnest.

And here we are, 2 months later. looking at the completion of those patterns I had already pointed out 2 months ago! So those fundies who argue with me about me being "overall" bullish....nothing to argue about, guys. I luv ya nonetheless. Ok, so I just had to get that off my chest. Back to the analysis. You see above, I am showing the wave c of B decline and right now the trick is to label that 5-wave move and figure out where we are within those 5-waves. It seems that we could be in the wave 5 of c and prices are poised to resume the downtrend into the completion of the 2 POTENTIAL patterns below. BUT, is it a wave 5 we are looking at OR is it still the wave 3 of c that will complete at the D points of those 2 patterns? This is not knowable right now. Only thing that is knowable is that we SHOULD see a further decline occurring. When prices do eventually decline into the pattern completion and hit the .886 retrace level of wave A, I will expect to see some kind of reverse reaction. If it's just a bounce or a bigger reversal? Also don't know. Click on each chart below to get the detailed descriptions of each:

MONTHLY CHART
Before I show you the updated MONTHLY chart, I first want you to see what I posted 2 months ago:

Compare what I posted then with what I am posting now:

WEEKLY CHART

Ok, so you've seen my Monthly and Weekly charts so let's start putting it all together here before I get into the fine details in the lower TF's. Here you can see the ABC 3-3-5 flat corrective wave IV unfolding more clearly.

WAVE COUNT
The wave A of IV unfolded in 3 waves as wave B of IV is doing now. However, wave B is unfolding in a ABC 5-3-5 Zigzag pattern. And that is where we are at now and what I am tracking. The question is where in the wave c of B of IV are prices now? What part of the 5-wave decline is prices in? This is the tricky part to decipher and pinpoint. What I am showing on the chart is a 5-waves leading and ending down where I have 2 POTENTIAL patterns waiting to be filled and also the .886 retrace of the wave A. This is a possible strong reversal area but we'll need to be patient and see how prices react at that point first. If this is going to be a flat correction, then I would expect to see this wave B drop down to test the very lows of wave A at 100% retrace and probably break below those lows to fill both the POTENTIAL Butterfly from the MONTHLY chart AND also that POTENTIAL Crab #2 (blue).

CONTINUED BELOW IN COMMENTS SECTION

SPECIAL Report on the S&P 500. Read it here. It's FREE: bit.ly/2KGJ409spx818
Mailing list: bit.ly/2iNieEY
Facebook Group: www.facebook.com/efxselect
Twitter: @andrewefxselect
Website: www.efxselect.com
Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.