FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
In my last chart I suggested that we were retracing the move of the March low to May high. I noted that we have potentially a leading diagonal of normal 5-3-5-3-5. The retracement was anticipated to be of the zigzag construction with low in the vicinity of 1.08 -1.07.

We have had very complex correction not the simple zigzag anticipated. This correction appear complete assuming we hold above 1.08350

Here are the technical summary:
1. Since May high, we have flat correction of 3-3-5 construction with wave (c) being ending diagonal .
2. We have retraced 61.8% Fib of the entire rise of the March low.
3. We have potential bullish RSI divergence.
4. In the proximity of the previous structure support .
5. If the Fin time symmetry holds then the anticipated wave (c) low due in this time window.

Invalidation level to note is 1.08350

If the above plays out then the upside is anticipated to be either large wave 3 or C. AB=CD would give us approx target of around 1.18 or higher. I will publish an updated chart as necessary with move detail in due course.

Warning: This is my interpretation of price action using TA approach that I consider helps me most but could be completely wrong. Therefore as always, do your own analysis for your trade requirement and ignore my views.

For those who appreciates my analysis, select to follow me and the chart for notification of future updates. Indicate you like my analysis by thumbs up, comments and sharing it with others. If you have an alternative idea then please be constructive and share for all to learn from.

Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis.

great I am new on here try to find the thumbs up ok
Thank you for that.

Hope the analysis will be of interest and profitable for you
+1 Reply
nice work Danv, I have the same position.

Gluck to all!
+1 Reply
this isnt happening
DanV MOD technical_trader_sour
Sorry, when I posted the chart I did not mean to give the impression that it was immediate buy and get upside move right away.

I am anticipating support in this area and only of we hold above 1.0835 and begin to show bullish price action, the consider going long using whatever method you normally use.

If the upside price action do develop then there will be lots of time to get into position as anticipated move will be significant and would last several months.

Therefore worth keeping an eye for it.

Hope this helps.
+2 Reply
Just wanted to say that I do agree with your analysis; I do not think it'll reach 1.12, but we can expect at least 1.095-1.100. This Greek referendum has taken a toll on the EUR, and it seems it'll finally begin dissipating in the coming weeks, further pushing the euro down
DanV MOD TradePeriod
Thanks for your comment. If we get price action lower than 1.08350 then it is likely that what I am calling ending diagonal will no longer be and will get extended move in which case it could go lot lower 1.07 - 1.06 or even lower.

However, if it holds above 1.08350 then it is possible a strong move up in wave 3 or C could unfold. We should know soon, may be by Friday or on open next week.
+1 Reply
Agreed. We are keeping a close eye on that 1.083 support level as well. I am just curious to see what data is released tomorrow in terms of US Building Permits and CPI.

But yes - if it holds above, we definitely will see wave 3 or the C come about. Let's see!
DanV MOD TradePeriod
Yes indeed. US data has been disappointing or not impressive. So lately any rally in USD if short lived. That might be evident tomorrow or it could be very disappointing.

Will be exciting.
+1 Reply
You think the eur/usd will go up today or tomorrow I am new in these. Thanks, Yanet
DanV MOD ygonzalez8486
Thanks for your question.

It is not possible to be so precise, only to say we are in possible time window based on Fib time ratio symmetry. It is possible that we might already have a low in place and move sideways in tight range to breakout to the upside.

OR tomorrows data might cause a quick spike low before moving higher.

These scenarios are only likely if we do not move lower than 1.08350 are for extended period. It that level fails then we could go lot lower as comment above.

Hope this helps.
+1 Reply
Mate you've come to the rescue of the EURO once again. God only knows it could do with some positive news ;)
DanV MOD pinkyod443
Hehehe, thanks. Though I did not view it as such. Just normal technical analysis. If the level holds then we have bullish move otherwise it will be invalidated and will review it again when appropriate.
The way I see things, we have a long-term bearish cycle and a neutral cycle (range) between $1.05 and $1.15. No bullish cycle in sight. If you're looking to short the dollar, it's better to go long GBP/USD. If you want to buy the euro, try crosses like EUR/AUD, EUR/CAD or EUR/NZD.
DanV MOD AdrianRaymondFX
Thank you for your comments. I appreciate it. Not sure if I could agree with you on no "Bullish Cycle in sight". Though you are right about trading euro crosses longer term to bullish side.

Since we have bottomed in March 2015 many are of the view that this is possible wave 4 retracement in EW terms and many other analyst different discipline are also suggesting that EUR will drop below that low over next few months and that seemingly fundamentals and political developments supporting that view.

However, since May 2015 high the initial decline has not been with 5 wave impulse leg. Hence it suggest that all price action since is corrective of price progress from March low to May high.

If correct then it follows that we should on completion of that correction there will be a new bullish leg to the upside which is likely to take out May 2015 high and could go lot higher based on EW analysis, though at time the actual counts are not clear or have more than one possibilities.

It seem at the close of this week that the trade idea detailed in the above chart has failed. Still a significant move up is fairly close but will show this in updated chart I am preparing at the beginning of the week.

Thanks once again.
Hi Dan - thanks for the chart. I have been sniffing around EURUSD as well. Trying to see if the ending diagonal is in play since the June 18 high.

I get hung up on that initial move lower from June 18-28 carving out as a 5 in lieu of a 3 wave needed for the wave 1 of a diagonal. It still may be possible with double zig-zags but that would likely drive it lower and closer to 1.07 or possibly 1.06. With SSI sentiment shifting towards neutral at 52% of traders are short, the EURUSD is acting more like it wants to get more shorts sucked in.

Nice analysis...take care.
DanV MOD JWagnerFXTrader
Thankyou. The suggested bullish move of the low shown in the chart failed as the ending diagonal did not hold.

So I am now contemplating a much larger contracting triangle which means correction will last longer yet the upside leg in that pattern is not far of which I will show in my new updated chart.

That might also harmonies with your sentiment SSI only showing 52% needing more short to be sucked in as you suggest.

Look forward to sharing my updated chart by the start of the week.
Updated chart published
+2 Reply
Traiasca linia mediana
catalin83 PRO catalin83
Iti recomand sa desenezi o furca descendenta....
i'm also bullish on the euro but this bottom is really hard to pick. there are a few bottoming counts are possible and each with different invalidations, really hard to pick this bottom. But pretty sure a bottom is forming.
DanV MOD colinsheen
Thanks for your comment. I agree with you.

It might continue chopping in tight range for rest of the week to form the bottom. Or some catalyst might make it move.

So patience is necessary and possibly even looking for confirmation is advisable.
+2 Reply
thank you for all
Awesome chart, and spot on for the bounce point, of course. Well done!
MisterFXGuy PRO MisterFXGuy
Oh, and by the way, look where it topped out after China kicked off the strong rally (I added a red arrow to your chart).

DanV MOD MisterFXGuy
Thanks for your comments. I appreciate it.
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