Victor.Y.F
Short

In case FRB rises rates 0.5%

FX:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
158 1 5
I know people would not believe it but Oil             price will drop to 20 and trades between 10-40 for many years. Now FRB and ECB are totally control commodities prices. I think this scenario have the same possibility with previous analisys. Check my USdollar             weekly chart for details. Be careful with XAU and other commodities futures they are only at half way of free dropping.
Comment: The new trend line should be tested this week or next week. If FRB only rises rates 0.25% and after that they publishes a doverish announcement then we have more trading ranges in next year. I’m expecting 8 months inflation and 12 months stocks bear market if this chart is invalid. Please check my last analysis about "ranges more ranges”.
Comment: This is the correct analysis now and a red trend line.
Comment: Looks like we have a 1.12 red trend line test soon. As time lasting longer, ECB will supply the market and FRB will rise rates again in spring 2016. US Congress passed 1.8 trillion budget so I’m expecting the FRB rates rising to 1.25% before Sep. 2016. Capital must flow~~~
Comment: From FRB dot-plot, board members are expecting mid- value of FRB interest rates at the end of 2016 is 1.375%. After I did a simple maths, then I realized that if we started from 0.5% with a mid- value 1.375% then we will have a USdollar 2.25% intersts before Dec. 2016. How could commodity price will rise after this high interests is expecting? Also how many people are thinking about negative interests EUR/USD is gonna be bottomed? Use your toes think about it.
Comment: I think SNB will declare that they're devaluating CHF this week could be Sunday after the markets close. I think they will sell EURO and will buy USD for good. This action will do a classic truncation from indexes dropping like DAX, SPX, NIKKEI and follow with a triangle trusting. Let all bears be trapped. Also I think BOJ will buy more etfs and will stop CNY/JPY's dropping. PBOC is too naughty to cooperate with fx market. It has to be controlled by other countries, indirectly.
Comment: This analysis is discarded now, the previous analysis is alive.
Comment: Two scenarios are both possible and The time could take 5 years for reaching target. Gold price has been proved a reversal. The worst prepare for the risks. If inflation losts control, we'll see EUR, Gold, indexes are all very high until the big crash.
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