1.14/1.1.1372 neighbourhood for a possible bounce lower...
Since the pair bottomed just north of weekly demand at 1.1119-1.1212, price has sported a reasonably bullish tone. Although the unit may endure some selling pressure around 1.1310 (the swing resistance marked with a pink arrow), the path appears relatively clear towards the weekly resistance area at 1.1717-1.1862.
Daily resistance at 1.1310 (also seen as a swing resistance on the weekly timeframe, though now marked as support on the daily timeframe) suffered a marginal breach to the upside yesterday, registering its second consecutive daily gain since bottoming around daily demand at 1.1171-1.1220. Assuming the market defends 1.1310 as support, the next upside target resides around the 1.1499 Nov 7 high, trailed closely by daily resistance plotted at 1.1523.
Wednesday’s briefing offered the 1.1325/1.13 region as a potential H4 sell zone (comprised of the round number 1.13, November’s opening level at 1.1314 and a 38.2% Fib resistance at 1.1325 ). As you can see, price responded to the zone amid early Asia and dropped 50 pips to lows of 1.1263. Therefore, this should have been a breakeven/mildly profitable trade, if handled correctly. As the markets entered US trade, the euro attracted fresh buyers and pushed to highs of 1.1347, though was unable to close above November’s opening level at 1.1314.
Areas of consideration:
In the event H4 price overthrows 1.1325/1.13, traders’ crosshairs are likely going to be fixed on the 1.14/1.1.1372 neighbourhood for a possible bounce lower. Shaded in green, this area is comprised of the 1.14 handle, a 61.8% Fib resistance value at 1.1392 and a resistance level at 1.1372. Why only a bounce given the number of closely converging H4 structures? There’s limited higher-timeframe resistance – the closest structure is seen around the 1.1499 Nov 7 high.
Conservative traders may opt to wait and see how H4 price action behaves before pulling the trigger. A bearish candlestick formation would help confirm seller interest, and also provide entry/stop parameters. Aggressive traders, on the other hand, will likely enter short from 1.1372 with stop-loss orders planted a few pips beyond 1.14.
In regard to downside targets from 1.14/1.1.1372, November’s opening level mentioned above at 1.1314 appears a logical starting point.
Today’s data points: US Retail sales m/m; Philly Fed manufacturing index; FOMC member Quarles speaks; Fed Chair Powell speaks; FOMC member Bostic speaks.
Daily resistance at 1.1310 (also seen as a swing resistance on the weekly timeframe, though now marked as support on the daily timeframe) suffered a marginal breach to the upside yesterday, registering its second consecutive daily gain since bottoming around daily demand at 1.1171-1.1220. Assuming the market defends 1.1310 as support, the next upside target resides around the 1.1499 Nov 7 high, trailed closely by daily resistance plotted at 1.1523.
Wednesday’s briefing offered the 1.1325/1.13 region as a potential H4 sell zone (comprised of the round number 1.13, November’s opening level at 1.1314 and a 38.2% Fib resistance at 1.1325 ). As you can see, price responded to the zone amid early Asia and dropped 50 pips to lows of 1.1263. Therefore, this should have been a breakeven/mildly profitable trade, if handled correctly. As the markets entered US trade, the euro attracted fresh buyers and pushed to highs of 1.1347, though was unable to close above November’s opening level at 1.1314.
Areas of consideration:
In the event H4 price overthrows 1.1325/1.13, traders’ crosshairs are likely going to be fixed on the 1.14/1.1.1372 neighbourhood for a possible bounce lower. Shaded in green, this area is comprised of the 1.14 handle, a 61.8% Fib resistance value at 1.1392 and a resistance level at 1.1372. Why only a bounce given the number of closely converging H4 structures? There’s limited higher-timeframe resistance – the closest structure is seen around the 1.1499 Nov 7 high.
Conservative traders may opt to wait and see how H4 price action behaves before pulling the trigger. A bearish candlestick formation would help confirm seller interest, and also provide entry/stop parameters. Aggressive traders, on the other hand, will likely enter short from 1.1372 with stop-loss orders planted a few pips beyond 1.14.
In regard to downside targets from 1.14/1.1.1372, November’s opening level mentioned above at 1.1314 appears a logical starting point.
Today’s data points: US Retail sales m/m; Philly Fed manufacturing index; FOMC member Quarles speaks; Fed Chair Powell speaks; FOMC member Bostic speaks.
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