I have taken profit 5 min ago from yesterdays entry as somehow it does not look right to keep it longer. I will wait for a better position which may appear maybe at 1.14-1.142 if we are lucky. I might be wrong and it might start slipping down in the next hour or so but I prefer staying on the sidelines now as moves are not very clear.
zuoertai
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@Erland, I exited from this trade this morning with tiny profit because I didn't know which direction it would go, so I got out just to be safe. And yes, I am waiting for another opportunity too. However I am not sure if the price could go that high, since DXY has reached a resistance level and nearly overbought
zuoertai
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@Erland, Correct a mistake of mine: DXY dropping in fact favors us to find a short opportunity. But still I am not sure if price can go that high lol. We shall see.
Erland
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The price did go there although you did not expect it. In my opinion - if it does not fall below 1.13 by the end of the week then we do not short until 1.162
zuoertai
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@Erland, I had a sell limit at 1.1400 so now this trade is running. I set my TP at 1.13480 since I don't expect it to move down too much. What is your opinion?
Erland
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@zuoertai, You are correct. But I would take profits now as it did not reach the target and german data may be positive thus it may barely reach you SL if it is at break even.
Erland
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Data was bad, the rise halted so your TP should be reached.
Erland
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It may take some time though as H1 does not show strong bearish signs (see asian session), instead it shows bullish signs - on H1 RSI stayed flat and above 50 while Stochastics kept on dropping and reached the bottom. Usually it it a sign of a bullish rise. A lot of market players seem to wish to reach 1.144
Just watch the price action as you still may need to close it manually or leave it to hit a break even.
Erland
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I understand - safe game is a safe game, but 1.1361 resistance still holds and it should stay that way. It may be retested once more and then it should start the move down towards 1.13 with first target 1.1285 and 1.1190 in extension and a final target 1.1130
By tomorrow EU session we should come closer to 1.13
We both made a mistake by not taking 40 pips at 10am NY time as I forgot to warn that the options expiry is set at 10am NY time (I knew them but forgot) with a target 1.1315 (see options expiries for today) and boys who had them took profits most likely which pulled the price back to 1.136. See the big pin bar on 15 min chart. It was a clear sign of a halt to the move.
Anyway - tomorrow will be another opportunity.
Still your idea was plausible and correct. Keep up the good work.