We did have Fed VC Clarida which shifted the market nicely towards areas I had in mind - mentioning YCC and inflationary information.
If you did get in early in EURO at a good price, a good risk/reward set up I would keep on the position till 1.20 areas and perhaps take some profit as it's nice area but let's keep an eye on RSI it is going towards over brought area. I have lined up and circled the area where price has shifted once reached those extended areas, RSI is a lagging indicator, which I don't like to use but I am today for those who I know do like using RSI. Now lets look at my favourite Fibs retracement we are near towards 161.8 area which is the 1.20 areas. Now that's where profit taking till begin for sure, I'd wait for pull back afterwards BUT the BULLS are still in control as long it's above the first trend-line up nearest, if it goes below a pull back to near Fib areas matching support areas and perhaps you could add additional confirmation such as MA/EMA/MACD divergence etc. Also, other instruments to take into mind check the VIXX and contracts on options would be worth looking into with the movement of SPY in mind... Do what your plan indicates you to do.
I've added additional long term targets, for the next 3-6 months, taking in technical, fundamental aspects and market behaviour.
Now Fundamentals to be aware of:
ISM Manufacturing
Fed Gov Lael Brainard Speaks
NFP
End of Month flows
For scalp trades EURO, various other majors perhaps have better opportunities as well as precious metals. However, swing set ups I would wait for deeper pull back which it's good to have patience, you want a good risk/reward set up jumping into the market right now chasing or trying to fade right now is what a retail mind-set trader does. Become a professional wait for those pull backs, you could take the scalp trades or wait for both.
Sometimes it is useful to look at the bigger picture:
Euro-USD are at the juncture of two channels, it could go either way.
It will probably depend on the outcome of the election in November.
Till then I expect the ratio to bounce between the channels.
I think USD as world reserve currency status has few more years to go, Euro is hardly an alternative.
Trade_Journal
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@igord2, and that is why the title is: EUR/USD - Let's be a little careful... Have a great week ahead.
igord2
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@TradeJournal_, I was agreeing with you, just oferring a bigger picture. Sometimes one needs charts at different time scales to get better idea what is going on and where we are.
Trade_Journal
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@igord2, Thank you - The great thing about trading is there is no one set way of trading it's just based on
probabilities. Following your own plan is always key...This is just an idea, not a recommendation.
Euro-USD are at the juncture of two channels, it could go either way.
It will probably depend on the outcome of the election in November.
Till then I expect the ratio to bounce between the channels.
I think USD as world reserve currency status has few more years to go, Euro is hardly an alternative.