If I had to make a guess I would say Bitcoin will top and crash in June, and the stock market will have its big Niagara falls in September and this will symbolically mark the beginning of the end. It could happen later, the later it happens the worse it gets.
This info is easy to find, no need to list all my sources.
The population is getting older, and migrants will stop coming to support retirements
Yes the population of Europe is old, and it keeps getting worst.
Until last year, when China made its own economic/monetary zone any attempt at challenge to the USD was crushed. Since the fall of the USSR obviously.
A journalist that read Hilary mails wrote this:
"So do you think it would it be easier for the Obama administration to rally American support behind this 'regime change' by explaining how the French wanted to steal Libya's wealth and maintain French neocolonial influence over Africa - or would Americans respond better to propaganda themes about Gaddafi passing out Viagra to his troops so they could rape more women while his snipers targeted innocent children? Bingo!"
And the truth is always "conspiracy theory". Lmao western public opinion is mentally retarded I swear.
If I am correct back in 2017 Ghana president told france "gtfo" (politely), "we don't want your help anymore" and he explained that african migrants are like italian migrants of the last century, they'll stop running away as the countries grow, and they are growing.
In 2019 the same man called the african diaspora to bring back stolen wealth in front of Macron, called the African-European relation non-natural, and criticized the narrative of "poor desperate people running away for a better life". He reminds that 1/4 of Chinese investments that made it grow into what it became came from chinese migrants, sending money back home.
Ghana president even said what I've been repeating for long! I love it! "We have to change the narrative about africa, and we can only do it ourselves. We have to get away from the idea that there is a father christmas somewhere that is going to come develop our continent for us." Lmao and tell this to western pro "free stuff".
Ghaddafi got killed for less than this but Akufo-Addo is still breathing.
The numbers are out there, the western population is aging, the working age population is in a downtrend, US & EU are desperate for working and taxpaying migrants. I'm not sure if this covid lockdown thing made things worse, or if it is creating austerity, people still work and produce but they consume less.
Plus migration is a big ponzi scheme, their children are not integrated at all, all unemployed, and often small time criminals. So you got to bring in even MOAR migrants to also pay for the welfare of the previous migrant's children.
Debt and spending to GDP is ridiculous
As "leftists" have pointed out so much, inequality has been growing in the past ~60 years. France spends 60% of its fake GDP. It's fake because they add to actual production government spending which produces nothing, they just tax themselves it's not real wealth. Growth died at least 10 years ago, and what they pretend is growth now is actually just taxing yourself to spend your money and count it twice. At least the USSR was honest about this... If it was real wealth, and you know, west Europe was so much stronger than other countries, far above them, why would they need the US to defend them against Russia & Turkey? A vastly greater economy should have no issue defending itself, military power follows even if it is ignored.
You know what is funny about inequality growing in the past 60 years? It is directly correlated to government transfers (you know, of money, like welfare) :) Of course, masterminds are asking for even MOAR of it! I guess 60 years is not enough time for the info to reach the brain. 60 years ago government transfers in the US represented less than 5% of americans income. In 2020 it has grown steadily (but exponentially) to 30%, ballooned a bit recently. Now where did I see this number before let me think. Of right! Rome. Rome had no grain future market so prices fluctuated a lot, and the senate/officials bought futures from Egypt and when the price went up too much they covered the difference for those that could not afford bread. Obviously as always it kept escalating and by 45 BC, 1 year before Caesar death the system was super abused (they'd argue that they had no choice LOL SURE). 30% of Rome was getting free bread (not just the difference in price), Caesar was aware this was just nuts and he cut this number in 2. But this did not save the republic. Senators that abhorred Caesar and were unable to bipartisan impeach him after he crossed the rubicon, bipartisan stabbed him to death the next year. And then it all degenerated into a massive civil war and 17 years after his death the Roman Empire was born. GG.
Michael Burry has also drawn parallels with Germany just before Hitler. Bill Ackman which is famous for being VERY VERY VERY wrong AND stubborn when he is wrong, repeated his short bet like last year, but I think he is too early. I now have access to american options, I will purchase some puts this summer I think.
China will collect its debts
China has openly panicked about their giant foreign currency bags, they are afraid they go to zero and they got scammed after working for decades. last year they caused the big downtrend of the USD starting in the summer or even earlier but I think China started selling in summer, the downtrend against their currency is still going.
They cannot do this with the US (who knows though) but with Europe? Haha good luck grandpas. China will send an armada, put their foot on land and say "Can't pay? No problem, we'll take what we want". They made it abundantly clear they were not going to bend over and let westerners literally scam them out of what was theirs. They worked and exported for several decades, and they won't just take it with a smile and say "oh well tough luck", the debt owed to China will not magically disappear and let's all forget about it and just go about our day. I can guarentee this. How delusional?
China will come to Europe, and they will take your monuments, they will take your bridges, they will take your factories, they will take your doctors, they will take your engineers, they will take your gold.
This may sound like a bad movie plot, exagerated or whatever, but it has happened. And it WILL happen. Hey recently Elliot management vulture-man went to Argentina and tried taking their warships. But he is just a man. China WILL take Europe warships. China is not a solo billionaire dude. They will be able to leave with what they want. This leads to war but it won't lead to war here, what will pathetic lazy sedentary comfy 60 year old west europeans do? Shut up and submit.
A grim conclusion, but each man for himself, if we prepare we can do well, and let them sort this mess. My destination will be England or North Africa. Good luck liberals.
The west is going to die. And it will all snowball. Their weakining will lead to more weakening. As they decline they won't be able to defend their interest so it will all fall apart.
This is all long term analysing, but what was predictable for decades is now becoming reality. And it might all start accelerating violently this very year. If you thought 2020 was bad I got news for you...
The west won't be able to continue to enforce their ponzi currency the us dollar. It has even already began in asia. Huge news that went under the radar in maintream. The west won't be able to continue neo-colonialism and the pillage of Africa. The west won't be able to continue to spread propaganda. The west won't be able to continue to suck in working age migrants to support their massive senior population. The west won't have enough of their own population to be able to support their seniors. The west will get a lost century like Japan got a lost decade. The west non native populations will leave & those that stay rebel. The west will get plundered by China that will take what is rightfully theirs. The west will degenerate into civil war with the end of democracy as result, I don't know if the next government will be fascists but they will be called fascists.
No matter the turn of events, no matter what miracles happen, in any case there is 0 possibility to support all these old people, and they will die. It is 100% impossible to give a high standard of living and good medical treatment to so many seniors. It's not socialism versus capitalism here. It's just maths at that point. This is not sarcasm or an expression, they will DIE, in the literal sense. Like what happens when they get covid, but this will be like 1000 covids. They will DIE. DIE. DIE. DIE. Those that made children will have kids to take care of them. Those without kids had "their fun" right? They did not want to waste years of their lives right? Then isn't it normal if they die a few years earlier? Welcome to nature.
The UK might survive while France, Germany, Benelux, and Italy sink into this mess, the UK has always survived. No need to mention Portugal and Spain that are already third world countries.
This open borders desperate policy in the US might buy some time, plus they have workers in China, but will just be "the harder they fall", also when Venezuela (and south american countries) got bad, migrants left, millions just walked home to their original country :)
Japan had no migrant so the fall was soft, the west fall will be much harder. And also Japanese are disciplined and hard working, french are lazy and always complain and protest, americans too now yet another "democracy" french touch export you're welcome.
France & Germany peaked in early 2010s not sure what source to link there is no clean & zoomed out one, they try to be business friendly but they're only helping multinationals, and alienating the population.
Hehe of course the UK doesn't care, straight line up, no peak, and even more they are projected to keep going up in a sustainable way till 2060! fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LFWA64TTGBQ647S
I live in the USA and there is no better country that existed since the Romans... I have been lucky to live my best years in the gold age of the empire. I always understood that everything that rises eventually falls. I came to the university to the USA and stay...i took advantage of every opportunity this country provided. Coming from a Third world country I understood how lucky I was to be able to live my professional life in the USA. I always have been thankful to the USA...Because nowhere in the 3rd world does middle class got the opportunity to live with such high life standards.... I admire the USA but I started seeing the country becoming an emerging economy since 2012 and knowing what is to live in a 3rd world country I worked harder 24 hrs to build a safety nest for some reason I felt that in the future I would not have the same opportunity. I am glad that I worked so hard and took all that the USA offered until today. I am sad that the life standard will fall as it is unsustainable but I can tell you people in the USA live to WORK and that make their productivity build the country that it is fading. I can attest that in my home country people work to live and in the USA people live to work. The success of the USA was built on all the people that work so hard...nothing last forever but I do give credit that the work ethic of this country is higher than all Latin-American at least and Spain. I am a citizen also by birth and parents from Mexico and Spain. Naturalized US Citizen. I can tell you nobody works harder than the people of the USA...in Latin-American and Spain at least people wort to live therefore culturally we cannot complain for not having the income of the USA...I know the west is falling but there are millions of US citizens who have worked very hard for generations and I have been a witness to that that the politicians are corrupted. Remember the ROMAN empire was destroyed by the CORRUPT POLITICIANS AND ITS SENATE... the common people did not destroy the empire. It is the same, USA is falling because of corrupts politicians and it is not because of the lower and middle class. Millions of USA citizens worked very hard with their hands blue collar jobs and they have the discipline to save every month on their 401 K believing in their system... Nobody talks about the hard working US Citizen but there are millions and that is why the empire did not fall earlier. They still are the glue that binds together this country. Not the elites, politicians, media or ….they have forgotten about the sweat of the founding fathers and the real America. I honor the USA and It is sad but indeed it will fall but I will always say USA was the greatest country in the world.
The rich have not been getting richer in the past 20 years, and the poor have not been getting poorer but the opposite. You know who lost? The middle class workers. Big drop in wealth % and even worse since last year.
You can blame the corrupt politicians but the voters place them here, easy to blame others.
Also lots of the US comfort levels came from dropping the gold standard, pillaging foreign countries, and this massive debt.
And like all pyramid schemes at some point it has to end. Japan had the same monetary scam and it ended quite softly I think.
The US will be destroyed by the laws of the universe, simple maths. You can't escape reality forever.
mvogel13
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@MrRenev, Agree...however having lived in a 3rd world country (Mexico) and Europe (Spain). I can tell you there was no better country to be than the USA... The opportunities were amazing. I agree with you it will fall and for all the reasons that you talked which you are right. However, even today the usa middle class lives better than the upper middle class in Mexico and Spain... 10 years ago the US Middle class used to live like the wealthy people of some 3rd world country. So the life standard today of the us middle class is like the upper middle class from a third world country. Eventually with the fall of the empire the US Middle class will be the same that a 3rd world country middle class. What I find amazing is that until 2020 the US Middle class had an amazing life standard and that is why I can state USA was the greatest country it ever existed. Please see how I am saying was because i understand that USA is in the process of becoming a 3rd world country. I will always missed the USA and it was the best country it ever existed. I will adjust like everybody else we all understand the world has changed. The fall is inevitable. Agree on your analysis.
snatly
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:pepenod:
CC_FX
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Great Content as always, factual and interesting vision! thank you
adoringOwl55210
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Thoughts on Eastern Europe?
MrRenev
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@adoringOwl55210, Maybe bounces? Putin is having dreams of the decline bottoming and it goes up from here. Young ruskies I heard stopped making drinking competitions like their parents to see who dies first, so there is hope.
It has been declining for 40 years, since the 80s. Since Putin Russia did better, but that's just the price of Oil going up.
When the west dies some investment also will go towards the east rather than US that has leached it all.
Central or east europe Poland & Hungary become real democracy while the west goes full purple hair, they should do ok.
Russia abortion rate has gone to zero, it was stupidly high before. The population growth was slowing down but it really crashed in the 80s. It is on an uptrend past 20 years, deaths downtrend past 10 years but that's prob mostly old people.
Idk the UN projects it goes down a bit but stays around 0.
A fun chart to look at would be the "growth net of debt" :) Russia is dominating the west already! Not a future projection, NOW. The US is the biggest loser, huge downtrend, and the Eurozone is in between.
They just lie & buy time basically.
About the balkans/romania that I don't really know.
adoringOwl55210
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@MrRenev, balkans/romania has the highest birth rate in EU. Real estate is cheap, lack of diversity... as you suggest, most migrants will eventually return to Eastern Europe (exclude Russia) => to more babies/less aging people problem
MrRenev
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@adoringOwl55210, Yes probably but I don't know the situation well so can't tell exactly how good or not it will be. I think they are even more pro business than the neo-liberals of the west also. They try to attract entrepreneurs but till now they all go to the west like a herd regardless of fundamentals.
fernandopimentel124
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Whether you want it or not, at least Germany will keep somewhat going up. The population problem you are talking about is relevant to all major countries but India (for now). Africa has been a major problem for the developed world for many years now and now we shall see China losing money with that mess as they will default on the credit and now turn the blame to the Chinese evil man for a change.