EURUSD has a low probability rally to Sep 14

FX:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
3524 24 40
I don't often publish Elliott Wave since the counts rarely provide a reliable signal, which for me has always been "after" a pattern completes. I have had a lot of success with terminal patterns in stocks and in various markets, but rarely do I see clear "impulsive moves" to catch a big trends using EW.

What I have done here is to use my RgMov indicator, which really captures the psychological state of the market each day based on the movement up and down in the market and then keeps a running tally of that psychology. The EW patterns in RgMov are MUCH CLEANER than they are in price. Why that is I can't explain other than to say I found this in 1990 and I've looked at from time to time. I developed TIME@MODE because it gives far more signals for me to trade. EW provides very few trades from the way that I look at it.

If you are NOT an EW follower, then do some research and read up on the 5-wave             pattern and how it typically "changes people's mind" about the trend. After a 5-wave             move, people typically understand the move after being dubious about it when it starts. A-B-C is usually just a pause after a trend. Robert Prechter has written some excellent articles on psychology and Elliott Wave to add to R.N. Elliott's original work. I studied Elliott Wave under Glenn Neely who wrote a masterpiece called "Mastering Elliott Wave". Glenn follows the logical rules of EW and has had to create new patterns to explain market action so that it can still follow the rules of logic. Many people use EW yet it is easy to come to different conclusions with it, which is another reason I developed my "Time At Mode" methodology since it is cleaner, simpler, and easier.

Either way, this pattern is so clear that I just had to share it with you and hope you like it. The entire decline from May 2014 to March 2015 lasted 221 bars or 311 calendar days. There is very nice alternation between waves (2) and (4) based on time and complexity while the price range is similar. Wave (1) is just shy of 38% of wave (3) and wave (5) is 62% of wave (3). The (2)-(4) trendline and no part of either wave (3) or wave (5) drift across the (2)-(4). Both wave (1) and wave (5) subdivide into nice impulsive moves with alternation in time, price or complexity between waves 2 and 4.

The action since the low is indicative of a correction of the downtrend and it may last to 61.8% of the time of the decline, which is how September 14, 2015 comes into the equation. It could last longer, and a lot longer too, but this is a minimum amount of time for a correction of the decline, which means a small rally in double-speak.

Risk = 1.1000 on EURUSD             . If EURUSD             goes under 1.10, then this count is wrong. If it stays over 1.10 then I'm just looking for upside action until mid September. Maybe 1.20 upside potential.

I'm happy to answer questions:

Tim 10:30PM EST Sunday, July 12, 2015

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Tim, we're near the next fibonacci time level. Equal time from top to bottom, maybe end of corrective structure soon?
2use IvanLabrie
do you have a chart on that ? usage of fibs for times? would be great to see
Check the vertical lines in Tim's chart. It's a neowave technique, not so much time at mode.
Different patterns have different time proportions.
In this case it looks like the impulse down had a correction after it, which is about to reach the minimum allowed time for a wave 2 or b.
I'm not clear on the whole wave count though, hence my remark to Tim hehe (he's the neowave specialist here, I'm just a begginer with it).
Not too bad so far for the multi-month forecast - Projected a high near 1.20 and we made it over 1.17 and for prices to peak about by now, which they seem to have. The RgMov pattern shows a potential setup, but what we really need to see is some range expansion, down-days to get things going.
4h shows a nice move to the downside, might be starting now.
I'll look to short on retrace.
+1 Reply
timwest IvanLabrie
This has been a very weak RgMov rally indicating the next down leg could be quite swift. Given the duration and magnitude of the last decline ,this next leg would likely be less. (1.40-1.05 was a big drop for EURUSD, measure from 1.17 down to maybe 0.95-0.90 next)
I think the upside is OVER here based on the wide-ranging, down close on Friday. 9/17/2015

I'm king when it comes to missing trades...and forecasting.
+2 Reply
This pattern worked pretty well! Did anyone else catch it??
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