Nico.Muselle

EURUSD - are you ready for the FOMC ?

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
2988 55 34
I do not trade during news event, but I was just curious what could be the eventual impact of the FOMC meeting of this evening.

Based on the move before and during the previous FOMC meeting I made a projection of where the news later today could take us. If the market perceives the news as negative (for me the more likely scenario), we might break the 1.10 resistance zone and reach into the previous "channel" between 1.1280 and 1.1500.

If news is perceived positive, we could go all the way down to the 1.05 area.

So ... are you going to trade before and during the FOMC, or are you going to wait till the dust settles ? Let me know how you see it and leave your comments below
Wow great perspective, really like the potential outcomes here.. news will move this one way or the other
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For sure it will move ... only the direction is not sure yet :) But you have the possible options now :)
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I back tested my strategy taking all setups regardless of when the FOMC meeting took place over 15 years of data, my rule is: All valid setups get taken... no exceptions So I just shorted EURUSD earlier today... might make for some quick losses! but we'll see...
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If you trade the bigger timeframes it should not have too much impact on your analysis. But taking a short on EURUSD is imho pretty dangerous .. I give it a 60/40 chance to go up.
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dionvuletich Nico.Muselle
What do you call a higher timeframe? I trade only 4hr's up
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4hr is the smallest of the "larger" timeframes for me ... if the structure or pattern that you base your trade upon is big enough :) (potential move of minimum a couple of hundred pips)
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dionvuletich Nico.Muselle
Yes, similar to your earlier post I see the similar structure of a butterfly within a bat possibly dropping into a bullish cypher around 1.06
EURUSD 240min Bearish Bat into Cypher Long
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Yes, I have that cypher on my charts as well, but it's not a completed pattern so I don't trade it.
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lol, would it be smart to put a buy stop around 1.104 and a sell stop around 1.08 right now?
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dionvuletich WangJason
go for it... our orders make no difference to the euro - at least one of us would be right
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dionvuletich dionvuletich
Lol caveat emptor!! agree with Nico - follow your plan!
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If that fits your trading plan, why not ? Be careful for the potential spikes though ... we might spike down before going up, or the other way around.
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DavidEsp Nico.Muselle
I'm gonna take a stab at it Nico. How I see the US (us) have been having some bad #'s lately w Home Sales, Manufacturing, ADP payroll & jobless claims etc...& seeing how GBP is leading the way in the world economy. I think that along w the GDP qoq numbers being not so hot we might be seeing EUR/USD make fresh attempt for 1.1036. Just my theory. Good luck!
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Makes sense ... imho the market is going to perceive it as negative as well and EURUSD is going up ... but I could be wrong of course :)
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Well i am already long aiming for 1.12. A head and shoulders pattern is already formulated. Also if the 1.045 low is the peak of wave 3 then we have entered a corrective wave 4 with potential to reach the 1.12 zone either as a 0.382 or 0.688 fib level
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Excellent, thanks for sharing !
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Well appreciated analysis, simple, straight, clear.
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Thanks ! :)
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Maybe one of these.

snapshot
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Hey, thanks for your reaction ... it's very well possible that we complete this Gartley this evening !
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mustard Nico.Muselle
Actually meant to be a BAT, posted in response to this analysis.

Week7: EURUSD will rise
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Oh yes, my apologies ... it is indeed a bat pattern. Nevertheless, chances to complete are good ! :)
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I think 1,1269 and above - FOMC isn't present hope, will wait for a rate not to change. These economies won't change their desires.
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I estimate the chances that price will go up 60-65% probable ... so yes, your targets are realistic in my eyes :)
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I agree with you. I will present its analysis of the same. However, I am assuming that the FOMC gave at the time of increases in interest rates and the euro is secured.
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RobertPapon RobertPapon
my analusis
snapshot
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Looking good ... let's see what the FOMC meeting brings us
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i think it will move on 1.05....
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It is possible, but I give it a higher possibility to go up to at least 1.12 ... but markets are always hard to predict as we depend on the psychology of market participants.
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RobertPapon Nico.Muselle
thank you, now i have short 1,1160 (target was 1,1170).
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What is your target for the short ?
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RobertPapon Nico.Muselle
1,1115 or i close before FOMC ;) (too dangerous)
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FxCC muthuraja_r
1.05 seems far fetch for now.
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for today surely ...
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FxCC Nico.Muselle
do you see it going to 1.15 or 1.20 in May?
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I don't make that long term forecasts (even though May is just 2 days away). I trade what I see .... :)
Anything is possible, depending on rate decisions, QE in EUR, oil prices ...
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FxCC Nico.Muselle
1.12 broke. 1.13 and 1.14 next
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Nico
What is your opinion of using tight stops say 5 pips and ten currency pairs. if guessing market direction is a 50-50 choice why not get quickly stopped out of the losers and let the winners ride Margin requirements are the only concern
Yes I have a practice account
Just a SUPPOSE
regards
Robert Oliphant
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Nico.Muselle MOD Robert Oliphant
A 5 pip stop is a sure way to get stopped out on a profitable trade because of spikes ... so imho this is a certain recipe for failure
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Robert Oliphant Nico.Muselle
I notice just before a move, running the stops seems to clear-out all the players
8 pips seems to help with limit order just outside direction
one big spike candle then the move clears it out
Fractals and grid trading hold my interest now, at least I am not approaching this speculation worried about money
emotion is canceled out
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Nico I'm long on EUR/USD now and aiming for 1.1350 with a huge stop loss at 1.0731 . Hopefully it reaches it. My huge doubt is that i'm also long on EUR AUD, chart is attached. I have a stop at 1.3614 and aiming for TP - 1.4374 . Do you think it's possible ? Anyone ?
long on eur aud ?
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anish_206 anish_206
Also is it possible for EUR/USD TP - 1.1350 as well ?
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I have my target @ 1.3330, completion of a bat pattern
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I have my doubts about EURAUD as it just created a lower low ... there might be some further retracement to the upside but I don't think it will retrace to the previous high
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anish_206 Nico.Muselle
Thanks for the reply. when you mentioned 1.3330 is it on EUR/AUD ? I'm a bit confused is a short position open now ? if yes, any suggestion of stop loss. ?
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anish_206 Nico.Muselle
EUR/AUD just shooted up high to 1.4137 , Very close to my stop at 4210. How come it came that high i wonder.
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may405 anish_206

NO
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No ?
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may405 anish_206
Trade what you see, not what you want to see !
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RECOMMEND enter long on the euro and dollar
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RobertPapon juancho.villalba.7
long? why?
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SunnyBTC PRO RobertPapon
Yup. Euro is toast imo and DXY should bounce up here
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I can go on sale
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Hi Nico, I would like to thank you for your insights last week. Thanks to your predictions, I managed to recover most of my losses. Keep up the good work :-)
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Glad it was helpful !
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