JWagnerFXTrader
Long

EURUSD Triangle Thrust before FOMC?

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
3628 27 37
See the notes on the chart for the wave counts we're following. Additional commentary below.

Since the June 4 high, the waves in the EURUSD             have become muddied. We wrote about some possibilities the muddied picture presents on June 10 "EURUSD Bears Waking Up". At that point, we were leaning towards a multi-hundred pip sell off.

A sell off did ensue, but not near as deep as expected. With another week's worth of price action, the pair may be carving a triangle pattern (shown above). IF this is correct, prices would soon begin a burst higher while holding above 1.1150. This pattern would target 1.17 area.

As you'll see in the notes, option #2 is simply a more complex version of what we wrote about on June 10. (On the chart, see the tan 'ALT' notes.) In that count, we eventually sell off to 1.09-1.10. It is possible under that scenario to pay a visit to the 1.1375-1.1500 range first, though not required.

So with options #1 and #2 having some overlap on a possible move higher to 1.1375, there is an opportunity to trade to the long side using a stop loss near 1.1145. We are in the midst of a complex correction, so be conservative on trade sizes until the picture clears.

Keep in mind the Daily Wave count "EURUSD Finishes Wave X". Over the medium term, we're still looking for more bullish action in the pair.

With FOMC meeting tomorrow, there is an increased chance of volatility. Again, any trades should be small in nature.

*This is intended for educational purposes on how to identify trading opportunities using Elliott Wave analysis.
Mussaleem
a year ago
THanks Mr Wagner. This and the weekly monday opening bell webinars are seriously helpful.
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JWagnerFXTrader PRO Mussaleem
a year ago
You're welcome Mussaleem. In yesterday's webinar, I placed more emphasis on option #2 above. After reviewing the chart today, the triangle pattern cannot be ignored.
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rick.alter.35
a year ago
yea triangle and all the subwaves are all 3wave abc's so checks out!
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JWagnerFXTrader PRO rick.alter.35
a year ago
So far it does - this EURUSD is a great example of when you have the 2 main counts lining up in the same direction, it provides an opportunity even if the counts aren't the clearest. Best of luck Rick!
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chessnut rick.alter.35
a year ago
also a complex triple zz in there which is fine
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JWagnerFXTrader PRO chessnut
a year ago
Chessnut - which leg are you seeing the triple zz? Do you have a picture to share?
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chessnut JWagnerFXTrader
a year ago
Hi Jeremy, leg C seems to best count as a triple. There is often one in a triangle to allow some alternation. This guided me to buy at 1.118
snapshot
+1 Reply
JWagnerFXTrader PRO chessnut
a year ago
I love the detail in your picture Chessnut! Well done and thank you for sharing.
+1 Reply
YuzukiChan
a year ago
This is the alternative scenario I posted here:
Good news: We know the future now!
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